The media finally got Johnson in front of a microphone yesterday although it was a panicky affair. He gave the BBC an hour's notice before his appearance on Radio 4's lunchtime World at One and got a soft ride from Mark Mardell. Channel 4 intend to 'empty chair' the Buffoon in tommorrow's televised debate if he fails to turn up. How is it possible to have a prime minister who is so frightened and ill-prepared for office he's afraid to debate with his own colleagues?
Boris Johnson gave an unequivocal guarantee (HERE) that we will be out by 31st October. No ifs, no buts, no caveats. It could not be clearer - could it? Anybody thinking this means we'll really be out on 1st November is in for a very big disappointment. Trust me this is not going to happen. BoJo is going to betray all the members of the ERG and most of his own party but he'll do it without a backward glance.
A humorous article in The Irish Times (HERE well worth a few minutes by the way) says he would set fire to the whole country if his hands were cold and I think he would. But taking us out of the EU without a deal would firebomb his own premiership, his legacy, his party and would reveal all that gushing nonsense about prospering-like-never before as the delusional twaddle it was.
Marina Hyde at The Guardian is also in sparkling form (HERE) in BoJo baiting including this:
"This week amounted to watching the live abortion of that time-worn
cliche that the Conservative parliamentary party is 'the most
sophisticated electorate in the world'. Do me a favour. They’ve just
spaffed 114 first-round votes on a subclinical narcissist whose chief
qualification for the gig is knowing the ancient Greek for raghead".
Of course, he says no deal is only a last resort because he's going to renegotiate the backstop with Brussels. The man who doesn't do detail ought to get a minion to do it for him, starting with this Commons Briefing paper (HERE) which explicitly says:
"There are further obstacles to renegotiation. Legally binding EU
Decisions were adopted by the EU27 and agreed to by the UK when
extensions to Article 50 were granted. These Decisions, taken under the
provisions of Article 50(3), explicitly rule out the reopening of the
Withdrawal Agreement".
He was talking tough yesterday but he probably didn't notice the EU have published a new Communication from the Commission (HERE) in the last couple of days about the "State of play of preparations of contingency measures for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union". It concludes that:
"The Commission has screened all the EU-level measures to assess whether they are still fit for purpose given the extension of the Article 50(3) TEU period. On the basis of this screening, the Commission considers that these legislative and non-legislative Union acts continue to meet their intended objectives. There is therefore no need to amend them on substance. The Commission does not plan any new measures ahead of the new withdrawal date".
They are completely ready.
On the other hand we have yet to publish the 120 page Withdrawal Agreement Bill and there are at least five other major pieces of Brexit related primary legislation still to go through parliament including a new Trade Bill, Financial Services Bill, Agriculture Bill, Fisheries Bill and Immigration Bill.
This is quite apart from just a tiny fraction of British Industry being prepared (HERE).
So, let's just summarise the obstacles to Johnson (or any other PM) renegotiating the Withdrawal Agreement OR leaving without a deal:
- Renegotiation is ruled out by a legally binding agreement
- The EU27 have ruled it out politically
- The EU negotiating team has been disbanded
- A new Commission will not be appointed until November 1st
- They are legally prepared NOW for us leaving without a deal
- We are miles behind - even if we managed to get a deal agreed with a transition period
- British Industry is 80% unprepared
- Food shortages are predicted within two weeks of our leaving
- The impact of no-deal will asymmetrically impact the UK far more than the EU
- We will have to get a trade deal eventually and the only way to do it is through the WA
So, will he take us out without a deal? No.
His threat to do it is simplistic, transparent, empty posturing that has never carried any weight in Brussels. Mrs May was unable to move the EU27. Johnson will now use the no deal threat as a lever to shift them. He is already applying pressure to it but will find sometime during the summer that it will break in his hands without the EU showing the slightest movement.
Come October it will be revoke Article 50 or beg the EU for another delay. These are the ONLY realistic options.
If there's one thing Johnson wants above everything else it's approbation. He wants to be loved. It's one thing to offer support and sympathy when factories close and people are thrown out of work by events over which you have no control. It's quite another if their misfortune is a direct result of your decision. And it's even worse if you promised them a bright, prosperous future and delivered the complete opposite. Would he do it? No. It would be his worst nightmare and might bring the country together in opposition to him.
And what a legacy it would be for a man who thinks he's the embodiment of Winston Churchill. In 1940 the great man saved the nation. BoJo does not want to go down as the man who destroyed it eighty years later.
Marina Hyde called Boris a 'narcissist' and I think this is what he is. Read this:
Narcissistic personality disorder — one of several types of personality disorders — is a mental condition in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for excessive attention and admiration, troubled relationships, and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of extreme confidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.
This is Boris Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson our next prime minister. Brace, brace!!
Looking back through some earlier posts, I noticed this one (HERE) from July 2017 almost two years ago where an economist predicted we would eventually throw in the towel on Brexit and abandon it. Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory said then:
Looking back through some earlier posts, I noticed this one (HERE) from July 2017 almost two years ago where an economist predicted we would eventually throw in the towel on Brexit and abandon it. Andrew Freris, CEO of Ecognosis Advisory said then:
"' All the power at the negotiating table lay on the
side of the Europeans, who were able to sit back and say 'you wanted to
go out, so go out'. He added: 'It’s very simple. Going out without a Brexit deal is lethal, it’s not going to happen'".
It looks like he might have been right.
