Monday 20 March 2017

A SECOND REFERENDUM COULD SPELL DISASTER

Some remainers are arguing for a second referendum but I think this is dangerous ground for us. If a new vote returned the same result as in 2016 this would be absolutely final for at least a generation, perhaps longer. We could not afford to lose a new referendum so we need to be absolutely certain about the result before asking for a new mandate from the people.

We also need to be realistic. Brexit will happen. Imagine the anger if the government even looked as if it was trying to thwart the democratically expressed will of the people. The vote was badly organised, unnecessary and mendacious but we agreed to abide by the result. Our aim now should be to get the UK back into the EU as soon as possible.

How do we do it? There are a number of things. Firstly, time. I think the demographics are already working in our favour as I explained HERE and will sooner or later result in a majority for rejoining the EU.  The only risk would be if Brexit was a runaway economic success and personally I cannot see this happening for a very long time - if ever.

But we can each take action to help things along. Leave voters will need to have a taste of life outside the EU with a faltering economy. For 25 years or more the anti-EU brigade have been able to blame the EU for every difficulty but soon the boot will be on another foot. Remainers will be able to blame everything on NOT being in the EU. It was easy for Brexiteers to sell a dream against reality, as it always is, but now they have to wake up and convince people in the cold light of day. It will only get harder for them and easier for us. Only this morning the Institute for Government (HERE) is suggesting 15 Acts of Parliament will be needed before we exit the EU putting a huge extra workload on MPs and civil servants.

When the difficulties mount up we should lose no opportunity to point out where to lay the blame and do this in letters to newspapers and MPs. We all know people who voted leave. OK many are hardliners and will never be convinced of the case for the EU even if we were all forced to eat grass. But others who were misled or are misguided will perhaps realise the so-called "scaremongering" was in fact the truth.

But calling for a new referendum two years ahead when the future is so uncertain and before there is a clear, profound and absolute certain shift in public opinion would be a very high risk strategy.