Trump and the coming revolution

In preparation for the midterm elections in November, Trump is beginning a two-pronged attack on his political opponents. With his approval ratings in the mid-thirties, he's launched a campaign to designate anyone slightly to the left of the most moderate Republican as a communist, and therefore, according to a book published in 2024, Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them), non-human. The book, by the way, has a foreword by Steve Bannon and an endorsement by Vice President JD Vance.  Trump is well aware of the consequences if the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November. He and others in his administration will likely face impeachment and possibly jail terms. 

Brexit: the unarguable truth

Paul Johnson was formerly a director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and one of this country’s most respected economists. He was regularly on the BBC following budget statements and appeared to be totally indifferent to the political pressures. It was this impartiality that gave the IFS such a standing. If you wanted the facts, the IFS is where you went. I never heard anyone describe Mr Johnson as anything other than scrupulously unbiased. Now, he and another Johnson, Robert, of the Centre for Cities, have written a lengthy piece on the economic impact of Brexit and its promise of deregulation and growth. Singapore on the Thames or the Sick Man of Europe?: The Economics of Brexit Ten Years from the Referendum, first appeared as a section of Anthony Sheldon’s book: The Brexit Effect 2016 – 2026 published by Cambridge University Press. It’s now been published as an article in CityAM.

Brexit: the back-sliding and regret

Roland Smith has been mentioned before on this blog. His name isn't a well-known one in the Brexit saga, but he was formerly head of the Brexit department at the Adam Smith Institute and in 2015 wrote a piece supporting Brexit, which he declared was “not about detail, it is about principle.” He wasn’t advocating a no-deal exit as some hardliners wanted, and in 2015 authored a paper titled: Evolution not revolution. The case for the EEA option. It was a proposal not unlike Dr Richard North’s Flexcit about which I have written before.  The opening paragraph of the executive summary states boldly, “Britain needs to leave the European Union, which over 43 years of membership has proven to be sclerotic, anti-democratic and immune to reform. It is a political relic of a post-war order that no longer exists.”

Farage: the unpopular populist

The Parliamentary Standards Commissioner is investigating the secret £5 million ‘gift’ that Nigel Farage received from the Thai-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, and in particular, whether or not it should have been declared at the time. Farage has insisted he took legal advice and, because the money was given before he became an MP in July 2024, says he didn’t need to declare it, although the rules clearly suggest otherwise.  Bear in mind that Farage declared £445 for a ticket to the Television and Radio Industries Club awards, £475 for a ticket to the British Journalism Awards and £9,253.60 for travel expenses to Belgium for a speaking engagement, all before he became an MP. Why disclose a paltry £10,000 but decide £5 million could remain secret? It makes no sense.

Brexit ten years on

It was quite predictable that the tenth anniversary would be the perfect opportunity to review Brexit, and I’ve lost count of the number of articles appearing on various aspects of the decision, none of them complementary. It is also notable that not one of the Vote Leave protagonists felt able to publish a valedictory piece. It was left to the idiot BoJo, writing in the Daily Mail, to claim that any politician advocating rejoining would be out of their tiny mind. He is an irrelevance, destined to wander around the edges of political society defending his own reckless stupidity until he finally expires.

Brexit: the saga continues

For the tenth anniversary of Brexit, the BBC has broadcast a two-part series with people at the centre of it all reminiscing about events leading up to and following the 2016 referendum. It's title is: Brexit: A Very British Civil War, and its described as: "The inside story of a vote that divided a nation. Unravelling the rivalries, betrayals and conflicts that tore apart the campaigns, told by those at the heart of Leave and Remain."  I confess I haven’t bothered to watch it all, but I have seen a few clips and social media comments. As far as I can see, nobody who was deeply - or even peripherally - involved is crowing about it and proclaiming that it has been a great success, something we should have done years before. 

Brexit, the lost decade

As we approach the tenth anniversary of Brexit, look out for plenty of articles to mark the date. This one in The Guardian by Jonathan Friedland is a good start. Another, on Substack by a Finnish journalist, Mika Horelli, in Brussels is even better and also well worth a read. Both men focus on the lies that delivered Brexit and have cost this country dear for the last decade.  On the topic of political lies, I watched Question Time last week, which covered the Makerfield by-election. An audience member said voters wanted honesty. I nearly burst out laughing. This is the very last thing they want. They got honesty in 2016 but rejected it in favour of the comforting lies peddled by the leave campaign.

The Brexit 'Horror Stories' are true

In a few weeks, we will be celebrating (if that's the right word) the tenth anniversary of the 2016 EU Referendum. It is no exaggeration to say that Brexit has, without question, been an abject failure. This isn't to say everyone agrees the project has failed, but nearly two-thirds of the population consistently say that it was a mistake. As always, there are a few diehard supporters who are trying to convince themselves and others not that Brexit has been a success, but given more time, they will somehow be vindicated when its finally 'done properly' - code for not all the ways tried so far. 

Reform's tide is on the way out

I genuinely believe we have now passed Reform UK’s high-water mark. Usually, you can’t keep Farage off the airwaves, but he has seemingly gone to ground during the high-profile by-election in Makerfield, which Reform needs to win to maintain a sense of forward momentum. The reasons for the deafening silence are obvious. The self-declared man-of-the-people is having difficulty in explaining an undeclared £5 million ‘gift’ from a cryptocurrency billionaire, a £10,000 County Court Judgement against him, and it now seems he will be investigated for contempt of court over comments he made after the two juries in a case involving two Muslims fighting with police in Manchester Airport failed to reach a verdict.  A man less fitted to be prime minister would be hard to find.

Britain can never lead in Europe

There were some exasperated raised eyebrows among the pro-EU cognoscenti last week when the LibDem spokesman on defence, James MacCleary, during an opposition debate on defence readiness (column 574) made an amazing statement that, “This is not about choosing between Britain and Europe; it is about recognising the obvious truth that Britain is safer when Europe is stronger, and Europe is stronger when Britain leads.” It’s not entirely clear to me what he meant. The most charitable explanation is that he was talking militarily, although even that is probably seen in Berlin and Paris as an exaggeration, bordering on hubris.