Reversing Brexit: a timeline is emerging

Things are warming up on the Brexit front.  Andy Burnham has apparently written to his cabinet ministers, setting out his position on Europe and asking them to be “aligned and disciplined” regarding the upcoming summit with the EU. He told them he would set out the next steps as part of his ten-year plan to be published later this year. He also said both the UK and EU have changed since Brexit and the future relationship will “depend on practical arrangements that are realistic for both sides, and responsive to this new reality." He added that any “fundamental change" to this relationship "would be for the public to decide and a matter for the next Parliament.” So, there we have it.

The Brexit conversation is beginning

Michel Barnier, the EU’s former Brexit negotiator, has said Britain would be welcomed back into the EU but pointed out that Burnham can’t do much about rejoining without public consent. He warned that the UK must be “clear-eyed” about the path ahead and said there would be “no single market à la carte.” I’m sure he’s right. I am not convinced the EU would even contemplate opening talks unless Britain can show a sustainable majority in favour of reversing Brexit. I would argue that Burnham has done what any politician in his position would do: he's kicked off a public debate. He should continue to raise the issue, keep it in the news, watch the polls and ‘roll the pitch’ ready for a moment when it will be right to talk about manifesto pledges and a future referendum.

Brexit and the Kremlin: Their part in our downfall

Andy Burnham has reopened the debate on Brexit with his statement to Parliament last Monday. The day before, in a podcast, he talked about Russian meddling in the 2016 referendum and said that when he first arrived in Downing Street he had asked about possible Russian interference, adding: "I've had the clear answer that, yes, there was." This is hardly news. I’ve always believed there was something going on and it certainly benefited Russia to drive a wedge between the UK and the European Union. What was surprising was the feigned outrage of the Brexiteers.

The 'infallible' Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch has a massive ego and unshakeable self-confidence. Her electoral problem is the very clear mismatch between that and her actual ability. She claimed in a 2024 interview with Sky News that she “never has gaffes” and never needs to “apologise for something", adding: “I never have to clarify, because I think very carefully about what I say." This looks to me like hubris, and if she actually believes it, she's the kind of person who would go all the way down a catastrophically bad road and take an entire nation with her, just to ‘prove’ she hasn’t made a mistake.  A little self-doubt is a wonderful thing.

Burnham, Brexit and the future of Britain

Andy Burnham’s conference speech last week has been surprisingly well received. It was a breath of fresh air, not least because he didn’t spend time launching ad hominem attacks on opposition leaders. Apart from that, he sounded authentic and actually appeared to believe what he was saying; he also announced what was probably the most radical policy platform since Margaret Thatcher in 1979, reversing much of her agenda. Reform UK now looks less like the great insurgents and more like an establishment party campaigning to keep the status quo. Labour has stolen a march on Farage. If voters really want change, Burnham now looks the better choice.

The US Mid term elections: Trouble ahead

In 38 days, Americans go to the polls to choose 435 Representatives (the entire House) and 35 of 100 Senate members (including two special elections in Ohio and Florida caused by the 2025 resignations of Rubio and Vance). It will be the most far-reaching election in modern US history. It will determine if Trump continues his orgy of lawlessness, corruption and grift or whether the US can pull itself back from the brink of extinction as a democratic nation. For Trump, his family, his administration and his henchmen, the election is existential. If the Republicans lose both houses, multiple impeachments will follow, some people will wind up behind bars, and Trump’s presidency will effectively end.

Two Speeches

The EU’s Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen has officially confirmed the EU is looking to grant something called 'Associate Member' status to Canada with talks beginning to discuss exactly what that means in detail. Canada will become even closer in trade and security than the present CETA agreement, on which Britain’s own trade deal is based. It seems it will embrace Erasmus, Horizon and payments into the EU budget. Trump called the idea laughable and threatened the EU with even more tariffs - underlining why Canada needed to pivot away from the US.  European Parliament President Roberta Metsola later told Euronews that countries including Australia and New Zealand could follow Canada as associate EU members. 

Farage, the money and the mob

We learned this weekend that Reform UK, which tries to portray itself as anti-establishment and a working-class party, is now in the news for accepting the largest political donation in British history from Ben Delo, a Sheffield-born cryptocurrency magnate. The £36 million donation adds to the £8 million he has already given Reform.  Like George Cotterill, a close Farage aide, Delo also has a conviction in the USA for breaking anti-money laundering rules but was pardoned by Donald Trump. Reform seems to be largely financed by some rather unsavoury characters. That astonishing sum was immediately matched by Christopher Harborne, another cryptocurrency billionaire, based in Thailand, although he was born in rural Derbyshire, bringing the total to £72 million in just two days. 

The Farage sting

Like every other scandal that Farage has ever been connected to (and there have been many), the best way to understand what’s going on with the Orr/Jukes/Farage ‘sting’ on Channel 4 is to employ Occam’s razor principle and accept that what you saw with your own eyes and heard with your own ears is the simple, unadorned reality. Reform-commissioned polls were donations in kind and illegally paid for by overseas donors. Reform is willing to accept money from impermissible foreign donors illegally routed through front people living in the UK. They have done it previously with other donors. This straightforward interpretation fits all the facts perfectly. It matches all we knew about Farage’s history of grift and his shambolic political parties. He and they are completely cavalier with the rules and the law.

MPs to debate the impact of Brexit

You may be aware of a debate scheduled for this coming Wednesday in Westminster Hall on the “impact of the 2016 EU membership referendum on the UK.” This may be as a result of a petition, although I'm not absolutely sure. Peter Wishart of the SNP will lead it. Ahead of the debate, the parliamentary authorities have published a briefing paper which is supposed to provide impartial facts to help those who want to contribute prepare for the debate. It’s a sort of statement of common ground, setting out the things that are generally accepted as being the true position.