The US Mid term elections: Trouble ahead

In 38 days, Americans go to the polls to choose 435 Representatives (the entire House) and 35 of 100 Senate members (including two special elections in Ohio and Florida caused by the 2025 resignations of Rubio and Vance). It will be the most far-reaching election in modern US history. It will determine if Trump continues his orgy of lawlessness, corruption and grift or whether the US can pull itself back from the brink of extinction as a democratic nation. For Trump, his family, his administration and his henchmen, the election is existential. If the Republicans lose both houses, multiple impeachments will follow, some people will wind up behind bars, and Trump’s presidency will effectively end.

Two Speeches

The EU’s Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen has officially confirmed the EU is looking to grant something called 'Associate Member' status to Canada with talks beginning to discuss exactly what that means in detail. Canada will become even closer in trade and security than the present CETA agreement, on which Britain’s own trade deal is based. It seems it will embrace Erasmus, Horizon and payments into the EU budget. Trump called the idea laughable and threatened the EU with even more tariffs - underlining why Canada needed to pivot away from the US.  European Parliament President Roberta Metsola later told Euronews that countries including Australia and New Zealand could follow Canada as associate EU members. 

Farage, the money and the mob

We learned this weekend that Reform UK, which tries to portray itself as anti-establishment and a working-class party, is now in the news for accepting the largest political donation in British history from Ben Delo, a Sheffield-born cryptocurrency magnate. The £36 million donation adds to the £8 million he has already given Reform.  Like George Cotterill, a close Farage aide, Delo also has a conviction in the USA for breaking anti-money laundering rules but was pardoned by Donald Trump. Reform seems to be largely financed by some rather unsavoury characters. That astonishing sum was immediately matched by Christopher Harborne, another cryptocurrency billionaire, based in Thailand, although he was born in rural Derbyshire, bringing the total to £72 million in just two days. 

The Farage sting

Like every other scandal that Farage has ever been connected to (and there have been many), the best way to understand what’s going on with the Orr/Jukes/Farage ‘sting’ on Channel 4 is to employ Occam’s razor principle and accept that what you saw with your own eyes and heard with your own ears is the simple, unadorned reality. Reform-commissioned polls were donations in kind and illegally paid for by overseas donors. Reform is willing to accept money from impermissible foreign donors illegally routed through front people living in the UK. They have done it previously with other donors. This straightforward interpretation fits all the facts perfectly. It matches all we knew about Farage’s history of grift and his shambolic political parties. He and they are completely cavalier with the rules and the law.

MPs to debate the impact of Brexit

You may be aware of a debate scheduled for this coming Wednesday in Westminster Hall on the “impact of the 2016 EU membership referendum on the UK.” This may be as a result of a petition, although I'm not absolutely sure. Peter Wishart of the SNP will lead it. Ahead of the debate, the parliamentary authorities have published a briefing paper which is supposed to provide impartial facts to help those who want to contribute prepare for the debate. It’s a sort of statement of common ground, setting out the things that are generally accepted as being the true position.

Fake news and social media

A story about immigrants seemed to appear in The Daily Express this week: Burnham's migrant gamble, thousands stranded in Cueta to be brought to the UK.  I say seemed because it actually didn't. The story and its appearance are both totally fake. That may not be a surprise to you since it’s difficult to find anything in the DE these days that is reliably true and accurate. This one was categorically far worse since it isn’t a legitimate Express story at all. Someone has gone to the trouble of creating a clone of the DE website, same font, same icons, same style, and even using the name of a real staff reporter. The cloned page had a subtly different URL and contained hyperlinks which took you to actual stories on the genuine Daily Express website. 

Fargage is becoming Reforms' biggest liability

Nigel Farage’s attempt to neatly sidestep a parliamentary investigation into his murky finances by resigning his seat and triggering a £250,000 by-election in his Clacton constituency hit the buffers last week. The best take I saw on the result was one that claimed voters had ‘overwhelmingly voted for parliament to conclude its investigation into his corruption and finances and 5 million quid bribe.’ Of course, that wasn’t the reason he won, but had he lost, any possible chance of finding out the truth would have disappeared, so it’s certainly an assumption you could make. The BBC was quick to point out early on Friday morning that the parliamentary standards commissioner, Daniel Greenberg, had already updated his website to show that the investigation was once again among the live ones. That, I think, is a sign of how seriously the allegations are being taken. Someone in the commissioner’s office clearly wanted to send a message.

The madness of King Donald

America’s descent into chaos and madness continues apace under the increasingly irrational, vindictive, narcissistic cretin, Donald J Trump. It’s difficult to believe that the world’s most powerful nation isn’t undergoing a collective nervous breakdown. It will take decades to recover from, even if it’s possible. If anyone, a decade ago, had written a fictional account of what’s happening right now, it would have been laughed at. I picked out a few things, just from the past few days, each of which would have been enough to get someone sacked, impeached or even jailed, but have barely caused a ripple. The extraordinary in the US had become normalised.

Burnham's industrial strategy: Is it worth anything?

I have huge admiration for Professor Chris Grey, who writes what is widely recognised as the best and most intelligent blog on Brexit, usually once a week. I am always amazed at the new insights he brings to current issues, and always as seen through the prism of Britain’s exit from the EU. His latest effort is about what sort of change we might expect from Andy Burnham, particularly on the EU question. If you thought there might be a sea change in Labour's red lines, then you are likely to be disappointed.  Burnham’s cabinet is broadly pro-EU, but then so was Starmer’s. The Parliamentary Labour Party is full of pro-Europeans, so it could hardly be otherwise. However, Grey doesn’t see any significant revision of the UK’s stance on Brexit. Burnham, he says, thinks that Brexit was “a symptom of a deeper malaise and, therefore, tackling that deeper malaise, rather than tackling Brexit, is the primary task."

Trump and the coming revolution

In preparation for the midterm elections in November, Trump is beginning a two-pronged attack on his political opponents. With his approval ratings in the mid-thirties, he's launched a campaign to designate anyone slightly to the left of the most moderate Republican as a communist, and therefore, according to a book published in 2024, Unhumans: The Secret History of Communist Revolutions (and How to Crush Them), non-human. The book, by the way, has a foreword by Steve Bannon and an endorsement by Vice President JD Vance.  Trump is well aware of the consequences if the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November. He and others in his administration will likely face impeachment and possibly jail terms.