Iran: Trump lights the blue touch paper

Among the more ludicrous reactions to Donald Trump’s war on the Iranian regime (and it is his own personal war) was the sight of Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations condemning America and Israel for Saturday’s brutal assault on cities and installations across Iran. This was at an emergency meeting of the Security Council, which only exposed what a pathetic body Trump has reduced it to. Prattling on about peace and security and passing resolutions that nobody sticks to. It’s a total waste of time. Israel claimed that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed by a missile launched into his compound, which the Iranians first denied before it was finally confirmed by state TV.

Gorton and Denton: Everyone's a loser

The Green Party took the Gorton and Denton by-election, with Labour being pushed down into third by Reform. It was a contest without any winners, and the best thing to celebrate was Matt Goodwin failing to get elected as an MP. At least there is one less divisive voice in the House of Commons. The one person who might raise a quiet glass this morning is Andy Burnham, who will be able to claim he could have won the seat for Labour. If anything, the result strengthens his quest to replace Starmer as party leader. In the end, the pollsters were wrong. It wasn't the tight result they had been forecasting. The Greens won by over 4,000 votes. Reform's support in the constituency was well overstated.

King Donald the Deranged

The US Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision to rule Trump’s tariff policy unlawful was one we should have expected. The only surprise was in learning that three justices, Kavanagh, Thomas and Alito were so biased toward Trump and the Republican Party that they actually argued he could apply import taxes (tariffs) on Americans without any input or approval from Congress. If you want to read the entire 170 page judgement and the dissenting opinion, it’s HERE. The SC found that the legal instrument that Trump used, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), allows the president to ‘regulate’ trade but not by imposing tariffs.

Trump's administration: The world's most powerful crime syndicate

The global news media is enjoying a field day with the arrest of Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, which is only something to be expected for anyone suspected of passing confidential government information to benefit a foreigner. However, faith in the justice system is so corroded that there is an element of shock that people in high places are actually being held to account. Lord Mandelson will no doubt be next. In Norway, royalty and senior politicians are also under investigation. France has set up a commission to look into potential corruption involving people connected to Jeffrey Epstein.  In fact, the only place where no activity is taking place appears to be in Trump’s America, where the president himself is at the epicentre of the whole sordid affair. 

Accidents of history: is the EU finally coming of age?

The advocates of Brexit, Farage, Johnson, Gove and their ilk, couldn’t have foreseen ten years ago, how profoundly the world has changed. Human history is replete with change, both geopolitical and technological; sometimes it happens slowly over centuries, sometimes quickly and violently. Timing is often a key element and crucial. In the late 1970s, the scientist and historian James Burke, fronted a TV series called Connections, which showed how big technological changes to society were frequently the result of complex relationships between various chance discoveries. I think in the future historians will look back on Brexit and see that it too came about because of unfortunate timing and chance.

The tectonic plates are shifting

EU leaders are starting to lay the foundations for a more resilient and self-reliant Europe, one that can look both the USA and China in the eye. There is the beginning of a “buy European” policy to protect “strategic sectors” of European industry. At a summit in Belgium, member states have been discussing how to ensure the continent punches its proper weight in a more volatile global economy. There is already a programme to fund and manufacture more strategic defence equipment following the Ukraine war, but the focus is also moving to include AI and clean technology, and no doubt other sectors will follow. 

Talking the talk on Brexit

David Henig, an expert on trade who writes extensively on Brexit, has a nice piece on the Best for Britain website that neatly sets out the conundrum Britain has faced for years. That is how to get frictionless trade with our nearest and richest market while retaining the right to total sovereignty over our own market rules, with full control over immigration policy and without making sizeable contributions to EU funds. Labour is now wrestling with the issue, but the so-called 'reset' only reveals that we haven't yet come to terms with what Brexit means. Mr Henig points out that Britain's trade policy has failed and that joining the EU's customs union is not the answer.

Labour: A leadership challenge is coming

It’s hard not to feel sympathy for Kier Starmer. He fired Peter Mandelson as our US ambassador in September last year when leaked emails from the US House of Representatives Oversight Committee first revealed he had sent supportive messages to Jeffrey Epstein during his 2008 prosecution and referred to him as his "best pal.” Five months later, Starmer himself is now coming under huge political pressure for appointing him in the first place. I’m not sure what else he could have done. People now accusing the PM of exercising poor judgment over Mandelson all seemed to think his appointment was a good one at the time. Starmer wasn't popular before last week's details emerged, and you can't help but feel Mandelson's behaviour over a decade ago is just a handy cudgel to beat him with.

Brexit: a hopeless case

This year will mark the tenth anniversary of David Cameron’s attempt to shoot UKIP’s fox and the ill-fated referendum on leaving the EU that he tried to use. We will also be able to recall all the lies told by Brexiters ten years ago as the campaign got underway. Of all the words spoken about Brexit since the starting gun was fired, those of  German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble in June 2016 still ring true: "In is in. Out is out", emphasising that the UK couldn't retain single market benefits without accepting EU obligations. Ever since the vote, we have been trying to find ways to prove that Schäuble was wrong. And we have comprehensively failed.

Epstein was Putin's "wealth manager"

A lot of extraordinary stuff is coming out of the Epstein files released recently by the US Department of Justice, as Lord Mandelson is learning to his cost. Journalists the world over are descending like a plague of locusts on the three million pages published on the DoJ website detailing correspondence between Epstein and various well-known individuals. The FT are picking over Mandelson's involvement with Epstein while the Daily Mail is focusing on what it describes, with some justification, as a KGB 'honeytrap'. Epstein amassed an $800 million fortune between 1999 and 2018 through various tax avoidance scams, investments and fees, although it's not entirely clear exactly how he did it. What I find extraordinary is the list of rich, powerful and influential people all over the world that he knew intimately.