IDS - MAY SHOULD GO AND GO NOW

Sometimes I think half of the upper echelons of the Tory party should be sectioned for their own and our safety. This applies in spades to Iain Duncan Smith. He is calling on Theresa May to go or at least set the date (HERE). The ERG attempted to remove the PM last year and failed. According to the rules they cannot mount another challenge for twelve months. These rules were created in 1998 under Hague and I assume this 12 month period was intended to prevent IDS doing what he is now doing, which is to continually call for the leader's head. 

MAY AT THE LIAISON COMMITTEE

Robert Peston at ITV (HERE) and The Telegraph (HERE) were both reporting yesterday on Mrs May's comments to the Commons Liaison Committee on Wednesday. Talks with Labour have been meaningful and constructive, it seems and while there are still differences they appear to be moving towards an agreement of some kind on a customs union.  Sterling has risen slightly which means the money markets see it as a positive step. Of course getting an agreement between the front benches is one thing but getting Tory MPs on board is quite another.

THE TORIES - ON A JOURNEY FROM BAD TO WORSE

Mrs May survived the 1922 Committee meeting yesterday (HERE), which decided not to change the rules to try and remove her. They are to demand a clearer timetable for her to go but have no power to force her out.  It was a non coup, Brexiteers and the ERG will be very disappointed not to say as mad as hell. She has until December before facing another vote of no confidence, unless she resigns beforehand - out of sheer embarrassment. It's impossible to overestimate the mess she's made of Brexit but politicians don't do shame do they?

MAY'S STATEMENT - What it tells us about the second referendum and the future relationship

Theresa May made a statement to the House yesterday on her meeting with the European Council (Hansard - HERE). I have to say it wasn't well received by the Brexiteers. Bill Cash called her trip to Brussels an 'abject surrender' and asked her to resign. He reminded her she had said we would leave on March 29th more than a hundred times (and he believed it, what a fool he is). He was not a happy bunny. 

THE UK GETS A DELAY - BY 'GROVELLING'

It's official then. We have got a long extension, longer than May wanted but not as long as President Tusk was suggesting beforehand. The new date is now the 31st of October (HERE) so it's a win all round I think. The PM didn't present a plan - as far as we know -  and Macron didn't get the short extension he wanted either. The new cliff edge staring at us from afar is on Halloween. We are now aiming for a themed Brexit it seems. There appear to be no really onerous conditions on the granting of the extension. The full 8-page council decision is HERE.

MAY FORCED TO SEEK ANOTHER DELAY

Theresa May is off to Paris and Berlin again today on another humiliating trip to try and get an extension to the Article 50 period. I should think Macron and Merkel are sick of the sound of the begging bowl - particularly from a country with ambitions to 'go global'. We look like one of those relatives who are always short of money but pretend all is well - just before they tap you up for a loan.  I wait with interest to see what happens.

STILL WAITING FOR COMPROMISE

With seven days to go it seems surprising there isn't more of a rising panic. Talks are said to be continuing between May and Corbyn to try and find a 'compromise' solution. For an idea of how they're probably going, read this account (HERE) of the meeting the PM had with Nicola Sturgeon on Wednesday. The Scottish first minister emerged to tell waiting reporters that all she heard was Theresa May explaining why her deal 'was actually the best one'. In other words there is no compromise from her side.

MAY'S FINAL BREXIT HUMILIATION

MV3 is coming to parliament later today - although it will appear in disguise, perhaps in the hope that MPs accidentally vote for it not realising what it is. It will not apparently be labelled  'meaningful' vote MV3. It's a last gasp s**t or bust attempt by Mrs May to get the Withdrawal Agreement approved. It won't include the political declaration which appears to be an acceptance that the DUP and some ERG members are never going to be persuaded to vote for her deal with the backstop. It seems to be the case that Mrs May now thinks half a deal is better than no deal at all.

HAS THE END OF MAY COME EARLY THIS YEAR?

I believe today was supposed to be the day for Operation Yellowhammer, the government's civil contingencies planning for a no deal Brexit, to be publicly unveiled. This includes TV ads to inform the public and businesses of the need to prepare. Whether or not it will now go ahead after we got another 12 days breathing space, I don't know.  However, whenever this official government advice is finally revealed we shall see what information cabinet ministers have been looking at for months.

THE FUTURE IS STILL FOGGY

The only sure thing this week is that there will be a summit of EU leaders in Strasbourg on Thursday and Friday. Beyond that nothing is certain but the possibilities are endless.  May's deal could be ratified in time for the summit. She might step down or be forced out. She will almost certainly have to ask for a delay, either a long or a short one. She could take Macron and Merkel hostage at gunpoint while demanding a trade deal in exchange for their safe return. We just don't know.

THE MISTAKES OF MAY

During the TV coverage of the latest episode of the Brexit saga yesterday, Sam Coates of The Times said on BBC that when Theresa May first entered Downing Street in 2016, she was asked by the then cabinet secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood, who died last year from cancer, if she wanted to have a 'big conversation' with the country and with parliamentarians to try and reach a consensus following a fractious, divisive referendum campaign. She and her advisers said no.  If there was a moment when Brexit started to go wrong that must have been it. 

ANOTHER CHAOTIC DAY IN PARLIAMENT

Yet another defeat last night for a government that has looked completely rudderless for months but is now holed below the waterline and taking more hits every day. The PM cannot survive much longer surely?  If you watched the debate on Parliament on TV you will know the Tory whips tried to be far too clever and drafted the government motion so that technically it meant leaving the EU on the 29th March was to be rejected, leaving open the prospect of a no-deal Brexit later on.

MAY PULLS RABBIT OUT OF HAT

Well, she managed to get 'something' from her last minute dash to Strasbourg (Note: it's always May doing the dashing isn't it? What does that tell us?). Whether it will be enough to get the deal ratified remains to be seen later today. The media is full of speculation this morning and I think it's fair to say nobody knows if the 'legally binding' changes will do the trick. The BBC (HERE) has the best summary as far as I can see and also provides links to the two documents that the PM agreed last night.

BREXIT - STILL WAITING FOR A BREAKTHROUGH

There is a strange air of unreality this weekend, with just 20 days to go to Brexit but absolutely no sign of panic anywhere as we head inexorably to what some think would be a catastrophe. It is as if nobody actually believes we are going to leave on March 29th without a deal - and they're right.  May's speech to the puzzled people of Grimsby yesterday has not gone down as well as she hoped - in fact it has been very badly received in Brussels, which was its intended target.

PROGRESS STALLS AS PROBLEMS MOUNT

Brexit and the government are slowly being swamped by problems of various size and complexity converging at speed on Westminster from every direction.  After months of running down the clock, the government is about to be run over by it.  The PM has been focused on using time slipping away as a blunt weapon against her opponents but is about to discover it works both ways.

On Tuesday the PM told a packed HoC (HERE):

LONELY MAY SINKS DEEPER IN THE BREXIT MIRE

Well, Theresa May did exactly what was predicted yesterday morning. She was forced into more concessions. The meaningful vote will take place at the latest on 12th March, if it fails - as it surely will - the following day MPs will vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal.  On this question, they have already voted by a majority to stop it and I assume they will do the same again. Also, note they are getting something we won't, a chance to vote for the same thing twice.

THE CRISIS IS COMING

Things are developing rapidly as the prime minister prepares to address the House of Commons later today. She is about to rule out a no deal Brexit, according to The Daily Mail (HERE). Apart from every sentient human being in the country who would have thought that?  If anything has been screamingly obvious for months it is that we won't leave on March 29th but it is being reported in shock-horror terms.

TO DELAY OR NO TO DELAY - THAT IS THE QUESTION

The prime minister addressed Chairs of Tory Associations on the National Conservative Convention yesterday and apparently told them she will not allow Brexit to be frustrated (HERE).  In part this was probably a response to a vote taken by the convention on a motion (HERE) which demanded we leave on March 29th and passed by 72 to 15, a huge majority, showing the depth of grass roots feeling about the importance of the date.

NO DESERT DEAL FOR MAY - JUST MORE TROUBLE

The prime minister is being battered from all sides and is beginning to look like what the popular press usually calls unfortunate or hapless, ill fated or even doomed. For a while now her grip on events has looked arthritically tenuous at best but now she seems to be either a passenger or perhaps even a bystander, albeit not an innocent one. In fact she of course actually set off the accident that we know as the Article 50 process.

REACHING OUT?

After the resignation of three of her MPs earlier this week, Theresa May had an exercise in 'reaching out' to remainers (HERE) having, it is said,  ignored requests previously for meetings with the moderates - being too preoccupied with the hard line ERG gang.  I noticed when they came out the reaction seemed to be that she 'listened' which is what she always does. The problem is nobody knows what she is thinking - she is sphinx like.