MISLEADING POLLS

ComRes has carried out a poll for The Telegraph apparently showing a majority of people support proroguing parliament to prevent MPs blocking Brexit and if you look at the figures this does indeed seem to be the case. The full 141 pages of the rather complicated poll is HERE. The headline number given  is 54% agree that Johnson (the poll calls him Boris throughout) "needs to deliver Brexit by any means, including suspending parliament if necessary, in order to prevent MPs from stopping it".

INTERESTING POLLING - It isn't disgruntled leavers the government should be worrying about

The government needs to stop obsessing about disgruntled leave voters in the north and start worrying about very unhappy remainers everywhere. Not only are they the majority, and growing in number, they are also far more committed to the cause. New polling by YouGov, working with researchers at UCL, is published in The New Statesman HERE showing just how differently the two sides view Brexit.  It makes encouraging reading.

TELEGRAPH POLLING SPIN AND THE NEW EMPIRE RISING

The Telegraph has published a report on the Spring 2019 Eurobarometer poll (HERE) with the rather misleading headline, "Less than half of Britons would back staying in the EU - with no majority for any outcome, poll suggests". Glancing at it you would be tempted to think this means Brexit is somehow gaining popularity. Nothing could be more wrong. You have to read the details to discover that while 45% would vote to stay in the EU, 37% would vote to leave and 18% didn't know.  The polling data is on this webpage HERE.

POLLING LATEST

Now here's something to cheer you up this morning. ComRes have carried out some polling (HERE) for Brexit Express whose published aim is to ensure 'no backsliding on Brexit' (HERE). It was established by City financier Jeremy Hoskings in 2016 and is pushing for a hard Brexit. In fact it claims 'the people' have already spoken, pointing to a petition on the parliamentary website which attracted 608,000 signatures. It doesn't mention the revoke Article 50 petition that garnered over ten times that number!

THE SUBLIMINAL SHIFT TO REMAIN

You might have seen references in the press recently to the the latest findings of a Survey undertaken by NatCen and the subsequent  report written by Sir John Curtice (HERE). It has been given wide coverage including by the BBC (HERE).  The headline finding is that in any new referendum 55% would vote to remain and 45% to leave (Table 14). This isn't really news since it follows the vast majority of recent polls. The other main finding, again hardly a revelation, is that about 80% of both remain and leave voters think the government is doing a bad job of negotiating Brexit (Table 7).  But the really surprising thing is in a small detail and not mentioned at all by the media. 

POLLS 110 & 111 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The first polls for March have been published in the WhatUKthinks series asking if: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? These are the 110th and 111th in the series and show a 9% and an 8% lead respectively for WRONG (HERE)

There were 50 polls in 2018 with WRONG in the lead in 49 of them. RIGHT was ahead just once in January. In the last 15 polls WRONG's lead never dropped below 6% and in the last 4 has been steady at 8-9%. 

To me it seems inconceivable that opinion is going to shift back. We are only ever going to see opinion against Brexit hardening. It does not matter if we have a delay or not, eventually the polling figures will reach a position that cannot be ignore.

COMRES POLLING FOR BREXIT EXPRESS

ComRes have conducted a very extensive poll for an organisation called Brexit Express. It has some interesting details about the way public opinion is shaping up. As is usual with these things the figures are used very selectively. The Telegraph (HERE) uses the poll to produce the headline: Public swinging behind no deal Brexit, as Tories and DUP urge May to invoke plan B. It claims 44% of people back leaving without a deal. This intrigued me so I did a bit of research.

POLLING

The latest YouGov poll in the WhatUKthinks series was published yesterday - asking if in hindsight Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU (HERE).  It shows another healthy 8% lead for WRONG. The lead hasn't been under 6% since 5th November and 13 polls.

What I think it tells us is how slowly opinion is changing. Support for Brexit is clearly ebbing away with 57 polls since RIGHT held a narrow 1% lead more than a year ago on 17th January 2018.

Update: the 1% lead figure originally read 50% owing to me not actually checking what my fingers were doing on the keyboard!

POLLS MOVE RELENTLESSLY TO REMAIN

Polls 107 and 108 have been published in the WhatUKthinks series asking: In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?  They show a solid lead for WRONG (HERE) of 7% and 9% respectively. All good. See the figures HERE.

THE DEAL WOULD TAKE US BACKWARDS

Dominic Grieve was on Newsnight last night defending himself from charges that his amendment, which resulted in the government's defeat yesterday afternoon, would have the effect of making a no deal outcome more likely. He rejected the charge and I think he was right to do so. But he did say something that I thought hit the nail on the head. 

SUPPORT FOR BREXIT IS CRUMBLING

The WhatUKthinks series of polls, now 102 in total, has been sampling opinion since August 2016 on the question: In hindsight do you think the decision to leave the EU was right or wrong? I usually post something on it whenever a new poll is published. I think it's worth showing the graph as of this month because the growing divergence of opinion is becoming clear.

POLLING LATEST

The 102nd poll in the WhatUKthinks series has been published (HERE). It shows 48% think in hindsight the decision to leave the EU was WRONG. Just 40% think it was RIGHT. This is more or less in line with recent polls and the 8% gap is the second widest on record. All very encouraging indeed.

LATTEST POLLING - 59% WOULD VOTE TO STAY IN THE EU

Peter Keller is the head of YouGov pollsters and has been conducting surveys on Brexit since Brexit was invented. They are behind most of the WhatUKthinks series for The Times. His most recent poll was for the People's Vote and has a sample size over 5,000 so pretty accurate stuff. See it HERE.

Kellner himself has a piece in The Guardian HERE about the results which must surely affect the thinking of ministers as we go into the Brexit end game. His article is titled, The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed.

POLLS 99 & 100 IN WHATUK THINKS - GET THE BUBBLY OUT!

Polls 99 and 100 have been published in the WhatUKthinks series going back to August 2016 asking if the decision to leave the EU was RIGHT or WRONG. The amount of people thinking it was the right decision has been falling steadily for about eighteen months and hovering just above the 40% level. I once said when it falls below that point we will know we are winning the argument and I'll open a bottle of something.  Well pass the bubbly.

Support for RIGHT hit a record low of just 38% on 4th December (HERE).

95th, 96th, 97th POLLS IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

YouGov have published three more polls asking in hindsight if the decision to leave the EU was Right or Wrong. These are the 95th, 96th and 97th.  Confusingly, they have inserted an extra poll from the 11th October so the poll numbering is not quite the same as before. However, all the latest ones show a healthy lead for WRONG. See the up to date chart and table HERE

POLL 94 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The 94th poll since August 2016 in the WhatUKthinks series has been published - see HERE. It shows another lead of  6% for WRONG (and 6% when don't knows are removed) in response to the question: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?  In 2018 there have been 43 polls in total with WRONG ahead in 41 of them. One was even and RIGHT was in front by just 1% on one occasion ten months ago.

Fieldwork for the last poll was 23rd October, after the big London march so it didn't sway public opinion very much at all - although it might be too early to tell.

WRONG has now been in front in 51 of the last 56 polls.  The Brexit Omnishambles lurches unsteadily onwards to national humiliation with a majority seeming to now believe it was a mistake but powerless to stop it. 

POLLS 92 & 93 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The 92nd and 93rd polls since August 2016 in the WhatUKthinks series have been published in quick succession - see HERE. They show leads of 3% and 6% for WRONG respectively (4% and 6% when don't knows are removed) in response to the question: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?  In 2018 there has now been 42 polls in total with WRONG ahead in 40 of them. One was even and RIGHT was in front by just 1% on one occasion ten months ago.

RIGHT led in 22 out of the first 27 polls, but WRONG has now been in front in 50 of the last 55 polls. The last poll fieldwork date was 19th October before the big march in London. The next poll will be interesting. We might see if the huge effort had an impact on public opinion.

POLL 90 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The 90th poll since August 2016 in the WhatUKthinks series has been published - see HERE. It shows a 5% lead for WRONG in response to the question: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?  In 2018 there has now been 39 polls in total with WRONG ahead in 37 of them. One was even and RIGHT was in front by just 1% on one occasion ten months ago.

RIGHT led in 22 out of the first 27 polls, but WRONG has now been in front in 47 of the last 52 polls. Unless YouGov's polling methods are wildly wrong the majority of voters will probably leave the EU next year in the biggest constitutional, legal, social and economic upheaval we have seen in our lifetime, thinking it's all a mistake.  What a mess.

MORE POLLING

Sky Data have published the results of a poll (HERE) where they asked the question: Do you think the outcome of Brexit will be better or worse than you thought it would be at the time of the EU referendum, or will it be as you expected?

SINISTER POLLING

Some rather sinister polling (HERE) has been carried out in a few carefully chosen Conservative held seats. The twelve constituencies don't seem to be in any particular area or order and the polling was done on behalf of some organisation called Brexit Express by ComRes. The constituencies are these: Aberconwy, Eddisbury, Totnes, Beaconsfield, Maidenhead, Bromley, South Cambridgeshire, Broxtowe, Huntingdon, Loughborough, Bracknell and Wimbledon.