After telling us for month after month there would be no general election before 2020 Mrs May announced yesterday to the surprise and shock of most people, there will be one on June 8th. It may have been rational but it was also opportunistic and based on the dire and incoherent position of the Labour party and her eighteen point lead in the latest opinion polls. I suppose we should expect no less from our politicians. Voters more often than not reward such cynicism.
However, let's consider why she might have thought it useful. The economy has held up better than anyone expected, driven mostly by consumer spending and debt. There are now signs this is coming to a end and the next few years will be tough with more austerity, probably public sector strikes and a government weighed down by Brexit. A bit of breathing space would be welcome I imagine. Also, the two year time scale for the Article 50 negotiations is increasingly looking unrealistic and an election in 2020 might easily coincide with the fraught last few weeks when all the key decisions are being made, under the usual EU dictum that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
John Curtice, the pollster, thinks she will probably get an increased majority but perhaps not by much whatever the poll lead is at the moment. The SNP, he says, are still strong in Scotland and won't lose may seats, Labour are in trouble with Corbyn as leader but given the short notice, their MPs will not suffer reselection and many of their seats are very safe ones. The Liberal Democrats have seen a huge rise in membership and expect to win back some of the constituencies lost in 2015. Mr Curtice thinks because of this it is hard for any party to win a landslide nowadays. Also, the boundary changes that were expected to favour the Conservatives will not be implemented.
I don't think remainers need to worry too much. This is a long term project and an election is not going to change much. Personally I am convinced we will be back in the EU before too long. There are no advantages to Britain in Brexit and sooner or later this will become clear. We will just need to keep pointing out whose fault it all is.
