Many Brexiteers believe we are somehow going to be transformed into a global trading behemoth after Brexit, mainly, it seems to me, by getting rid of EU regulations. I think this is wishful thinking. What concerns me most is the shaky foundations on which this utopian future is built. The Telegraph is one the worst offenders. Any hint of a benefit from Brexit is blown out of all proportion. Yesterday it was a report about the prospects of an FTA with India (HERE).
The report claims we would benefit by £2 billion if we sign up to a trade deal with India, which The Telegraph uses as its headline. The report puts the forecast increase at $2.5 billion (from $5.2 billion to $7.8 billion).
What it doesn't say is that even this increase in exports to the sub continent will not put us above German exports ($12 billion) or even those of Belgium ($8.2 billion), a country with no historic connection with India and a population one sixth of ours. Both of these countries are not at all restrained apparently, by the regulations that shackle us, even though they are fellow EU members! These figure by the way are readily available for 2015-16 on India's Department of Commerce website (HERE).
Incidentally, we have a trade deficit with India (meaning we import more than we export) while Germany and Belgium both have surpluses.
The report (HERE) also suggests India would want:
"...improved market access for services in the EU in Mode 1 (information-technology-enabled services, business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing) and Mode 4 (the movement of skilled professionals such as software engineers). India has also sought data secure status from the EU, which would enable high end business from the EU to flow into India. The EU on the other hand has sought more commitments from India for opening up sectors like insurance and retail, and lowering tariffs in the automobile and wine and spirit sectors".
It will be interesting to see what kind of FTA is negotiated, if we ever get one.
