A little while ago I posted something about the demographics of Brexit (HERE) to the effect that as older pro-leave voters die, new pro-remain voters will join the electorate and sooner or later there will be a majority to remain. I still hold to this view but The Independent had a report a few days ago (HERE) suggesting opposition to Brexit was at its height. I think the headline was a bit misleading but at the same time also slightly encouraging.
The polling evidence came from YouGov's monthly survey to see if people thought Brexit was the right or wrong decision. This has been carried out since August last year and in the main it showed the result of the referendum reasonably accurately, with leave regularly being ahead by a couple of percentage points. But it is gradually narrowing and is now on level pegging at 44% for both leave and remain with 12% don't know. The 12% figure is very consistent.
However, what the report in The Indy did not say was that having made the decision 69% thought the government should get on with it (see YouGov HERE) with only 21% saying Brexit should be stopped or reversed. What may be significant is the 25% of those polled who voted to remain but thought the government had a duty to carry out the wishes of the majority. Clearly these are people without really strong opinions about Brexit but some might feel the general election is an opportunity to send a message. They are the persuadables I believe and rather a large number. The figures were taken on 26-27th March so before the election was announced.
Note also under question 2 on the YouGov website, the total of those polled who voted to remain is 46% (25+21%) - close to the actual 48%, while those keen to leave is only 44% down markedly from the 52% who actually voted to leave. Discounting the don't knows would make it 51% remain to 48% leave, a reversal of the actual result last year.
What is encouraging is that slowly (perhaps) the electorate is beginning to wake up to the impact of Brexit and over the next few years as the economy slows and the problems mount I think the number of people who think it was a mistake will rise to become the consistent and growing majority.
