The referendum campaign was characterised by what was in effect a coalition of disparate people and groups. Their aims were wildly different but the referendum question was so broad all were able to come together under one banner and appear united. This gave the Leave campaign a decided advantage, they gained support from a range of very different people but it was almost impossible to find two people who could agree on a common future. In typically British fashion it was a case of sorting it all out afterwards.
Well, we are now reaching the point where that common future has to be decided and there is certain to be disappointment for many. Sooner or later the Brexit coalition will begin to fragment. Brexit means Brexit served its purpose but real decisions will soon need to be made. Nowhere is this more true than agriculture and the CAP. John Longworth, former director of Britain's Chambers of Commerce and now a part of the campaigning group Leave means Leave, wrote in The Guardian in January (HERE) telling us to Stop Complaining About Brexit. The economic benefits will be huge, he said.
Even for the completely delusional Mr Longworth it takes some beating. He says we should aim to either unilaterally or through free trade agreements, reduce tariffs on imports. This would reduce food prices by up to 40% he claims. Compare it to Julian Sturdy, another leave advocate, MP for York Outer and a farmer. Speaking in The House about the CAP, he wanted it reformed to incentivise home grown production (HERE Col 122).
Fiscal hawks have attacked the CAP for years for being far too expensive and yet if we are to realise Mr Longworth's vision either a new and even more costly subsidy scheme will be needed or farmers like Mr Sturdy, competing with world prices, will be out of business.
Fiscal hawks have attacked the CAP for years for being far too expensive and yet if we are to realise Mr Longworth's vision either a new and even more costly subsidy scheme will be needed or farmers like Mr Sturdy, competing with world prices, will be out of business.
Food may be cheaper but we will either have to pay for it through taxation or thousands of acres of farmland will become wilderness and it will be the end of British agriculture. I do not believe for a second that Mr Longworth wants farmers to be subsidised even more than they are now. There would be no savings for the consumer at all, just a return to Soviet style management of food prices and a hidden cost to buyers. And Julian Sturdy will not be happy to be forced off the land. How are they to be reconciled?
This is just one of the many Brexit circles to square. I think many of the 52% who voted to leave are bound to think membership of the EU was better that what will be offered in 2020.
