On the question of the demographics, I learn that Lord Ashcroft's polling company questioned 12,369 people on the day of the vote to try and understand why they voted the way they did. I posted something in March (HERE) using YouGov's data but I don't think this alters the conclusion I reached previously. If anything, it reinforces it because the figures for the 18-24 age group are actually 73% to 27% to remain, while the figure for the over 65s is 60% to 40% to leave.
These numbers are rather better for my argument because they actually widen the gap between the number of probable remainers and leavers joining the electorate each year and the same gap between the number of leavers and remainers leaving. So, instead of 161,000 effectively swapping sides each year, it becomes 198,000. It means there will be a shorter period before remainers outnumber leavers.
However, more interesting for me is the figure at the end of the article. About 77% of those voting remain thought the referendum result could have disastrous consequences for the UK, while 69% of leave voters thought it might make us a bit worse off or a bit better off but overall wouldn't have much impact. This is significant I think. Assuming the economy fares badly over the next few years perhaps leavers might be inclined to change their mind. On the other hand, if we manage OK with just a small impact on living standards then the opinion of remainers might change. It's all down to the economy I think.
The full article is on Lord Ashcroft's website (HERE) and you can download a pdf of all of his findings if you wish.
