There has been outrage in the anti-EU press about the so-called Brexit Bill. The Guardian (HERE) has an article about it which suggests the final figure could be anywhere between nothing at all (David Davis' position) and €100 billion (The Times' calculation). I found a more considered estimate on the website of a Brussels based economic think tank - Breugel - (HERE).
They put the maximum total of liabilities at either €86 billion or €113 billion depending on how you calculate our share. But this has to be offset by assets, which they say are a maximum of either €51.2 billion or €78.6 billion. These are all going to be up for discussion but in Breugel's opinion the final net figure for the UK will be somewhere between €25.4 billion and €65.1 billion. We may have to pay up to €109 billion up front including contingent liabilities which, assuming not all of them are needed, will result in rebates as the liabilities are dissipated,
Centre for European Reform (HERE) looks at three methods for calculating our "bill" and puts them in a range of €57-€73 billion for method 1, €48-€61 billion for method 2 and €25-€33 billion for method 3. You can see there is some agreement between Breugel's figures and those of the CER with the range being from €73 billion maximum to €25 billion minimum. The argument in all cases is that the EU has made legally binding commitments for forward spending, decisions made while we were a member and for which the Commission thinks we are liable. This is not, as the press claim an exit bill - it is a settling of the accounts
It is clear the issue is very complicated and although the House of Lords said some time ago there is no legal basis for us to pay anything, the EU have legal advice to the opposite and while we are a member of the EU any legal case will be heard by the ECJ. One can imagine the absolute fury if the case were to go legal. It would sour relations for decades so I am sure a compromise will be found and the headline number will be relatively modest even if the final total is at the top end of the estimates.
