YouGov ran a poll recently that Brexiteers have seized upon to show the nation is now pro-Brexit by a two-thirds majority. The Telegraph (HERE) along with The Daily Mail and The Sun gleefully reporting it as two thirds of people “now support Brexit”. But is this really true?
Headline writers have used the fact that in the poll (HERE) 45% of respondents are described as “hard leavers” while only 22% described themselves as “hard remainers”. Another 23% answered this question in the affirmative:
I did not support Britain leaving the EU, but now the British people have voted to leave the government has a duty to carry out their wishes and leave.
It does not mean they have changed their opinion. But by adding the 45% hard leavers to the 23% - what might be called “soft remainers” (my phrase) the anti-EU press were able to write that two thirds of people now support Brexit. I think this is misleading. I voted to remain and I would characterise my self as a “hard remainer” but I couldn’t support what the 22% of hard remainers want in the YouGov survey and that is for the government to “ignore the result of the referendum”. This would unleash a backlash that no government could control. In fact I think we have to leave so the full impact is felt by as many people as possible and there are no lingering or challengeable doubts about Brexit. Let the leave lies be shown for what they were.
What I believe the poll actually shows is that we are still more or less evenly divided but half of those on the losing side, the remainers, are democratic and accept the result. Had the referendum gone the other way, half the leavers would want to ignore the result and carry on advocating we leave anyway, while the other half would accept the decision. I think in any democracy and in any vote about half the electorate are in the centre with no strong opinions either way. They are persuadable to the left or the right. And at each extreme there is another 25% who would never contemplate changing their mind. If this were not true we would have permanent one party government.
If anything, we remainers can take heart. At least 23% are sympathetic to remaining or rejoining the EU. And while 45% describe themselves as Euro sceptic, it would be surprising if, faced with the inevitable downturn and loss of influence and the break-up of the nation, half of them (soft leavers) are not persuadable that being in the EU is actually the best thing for us.
Our job is to make sure no one, family, friend, neighbour or work colleague, is under any illusions about who to blame when Brexit hits living standards and public services.
