The Chancellor was on the radio the other morning making the same claim Brexiteers have made since the election, that over 80% of voters were in favour of leaving the EU. This is just not true. It is true both main parties had manifestos containing this policy but what choice did people really have? For many remainers, even Conservative ones, a vote for Labour was the only way of avoiding a Conservative majority and this is reluctantly what they did. This is not the same as being in favour of leaving the EU. Mrs May specifically asked for a majority to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations. The people voted to weaken it. This is the fact.
I listened to him while reading a Reuters report where he warns that "large amounts of business investment" is being postponed (HERE) because of uncertainty around Brexit. He calls for early agreement on a transitional period as if this will solve the problem. It won't.
Investment is being postponed or lost because business is concerned that we will be leaving the single market and the customs union. They do not share the Brexiteers enthusiasm for trading with far flung countries and oppressive regimes rather than our friends in Europe. A transitional period doesn't alter this, it just means the problems are put off for a few years.
The CBI, the EEF, Airbus, the SMMT and others are all calling for membership of the single market and customs union or at least something that looks exactly the same as we have at the moment and although that seems unlikely, it is perhaps more likely than it was. This is not to believe the EU is going to offer us a status that gives us all the benefits with none of the obligations. They aren't. We may opt for an EEA type relationship or something close to it but I doubt it.
It remains a truth (for this remainer anyway) that most people had no idea what they were voting for in the referendum. They were fodder for the two campaigns. Had remain won they would have used the result to shut leavers up. As it was, leavers won and are doing the reverse. We shouldn't complain about it. However, this does not change economic facts and as Mark Carney told us this week, Brexit is going to make us poorer (HERE).
People will notice this over the next few years as the current stalled investment in the UK feeds through to fewer jobs. The fall in consumer spending and EU immigration will further reduce government revenues. Taxes will almost certainly have to rise as will interest rates and this will depress growth as well.
The question will then arise what caused it? Brexiteers will deny it had anything to do with Brexit. Remainers will assert it had everything to do with it and the people will have to make up their minds.
