The Guardian (HERE) reported in the last few days that we are bottom of the G7 growth league. Canada is at the top with a rate of 0.9% in the first quarter compared to our 0.2%. Reuters (HERE) claim mortgage approvals dropped to a seven month low last month - not surprising since estate agents have said the number of properties for sale is also at a low point. Recently Reuters carry a report from Nationwide (HERE) that house prices in the UK fell for the third month in a row - the first time this has happened since 2009.
Today, the EU released figures (HERE) showing we are now officially at the bottom of the EU growth league with even Greece beating us in the first quarter. The other day I read somewhere that consumer confidence remains high but on these figures it is hard to see why. In my opinion it is the economy that will, sooner or later, prove the undoing of Brexit. I know there are plenty of other social, cultural, environmental and security reasons for remaining in the EU not to say the long term benefits of being part of a great project to bring different people together to make the world a better place for our children. But I think it is when the economic impact becomes clear that minds will change.
As the negotiations are about to start the indicators here are slowly beginning to turn south. A survey in the services sector of the UK shows a further slowdown in May according the Purchasing Manager's Index (HERE) and consumer spending also slowed further (HERE) as inflation begins to eat into family incomes. A report in The Guardian claims Brexit is now starting to hurt the economy (HERE) as EU workers return home and skill shortages begin to impact us. Meanwhile the Euro zone shows signs of solid progress with growth at a six year high (HERE).
As the negotiations are about to start the indicators here are slowly beginning to turn south. A survey in the services sector of the UK shows a further slowdown in May according the Purchasing Manager's Index (HERE) and consumer spending also slowed further (HERE) as inflation begins to eat into family incomes. A report in The Guardian claims Brexit is now starting to hurt the economy (HERE) as EU workers return home and skill shortages begin to impact us. Meanwhile the Euro zone shows signs of solid progress with growth at a six year high (HERE).
Manufacturing increased slightly and some pro-brexit news outlets pointed to it as a "surge" in demand for British goods without explaining that most of the increase was due to a better performance in the EU, the market we are planning to leave in less than two years time. The fall in services more than wiped out growth in manufacturing.
And a new study (HERE) claims that even the worst case Brexit will be bearable for the EU (HERE) with a hard Brexit where we fall back on WTO terms costing us 1.7% of GDP (about £34 billion a year) in the longer term while for the EU it would be a relatively manageable 0.3%. It is all beginning to turn sour - no wonder the PM called an election for today. In a few months she knows it will be far more difficult if not impossible for her to win.
