The Whatukthinks website has a new result to add to the opinion tracker (HERE). YouGov carried out a poll on July 11th which shows we're back to where we were last year with 45% thinking the decision to leave the EU was right against 43% who think it's wrong. This is just one poll so the recent trend where three of the previous four polls showed a majority thought the decision was wrong may still continue. However, as professor Curtice said recently (HERE) there is no consistent evidence yet of a change of mind.
What I would say is that opinion about Jeremy Corbyn changed very quickly in the run up to the last election on June 8th. From 20% behind he came to within 2% by the time of the vote. Brexit may be the same. Some event or incident will happen that causes people to stop and think. Some will change their mind and others will follow. The fine balance between leave and remain will be upset and there will perhaps be a rapid change.
A Guardian/ICM poll out yesterday (HERE) might show a bit more evidence that the political tide is starting to turn but the results are slightly puzzling. The pollster gave respondents three options on what should be the outcome of the current EU negotiations.
Leave the EU under any circumstances - 46% (down 7%)
Let MPs decide - 11%
Have a second referendum - 32% (up 6%)
This is encouraging. More people are beginning to turn away from a hard Brexit and towards a second referendum albeit still only a third. But they also asked what people thought the impact of Brexit would be on them personally financially and the result was:
Positive 12%
Negative 32%
On the economy as a whole:
Positive 29%
Negative 42%
And on the country generally:
Positive 33%
Negative 34%
So in every case people thought Brexit would have a negative impact. But then this amazing answer to the question: Would you feel joy or despair when we leave the EU? And the answer was
Joy 41%
Despair 38%
So apparently a majority of people will feel joy that they, the economy and the nation generally would be negatively impacted! We seem to have become a nation of masochists.
