In her Florence speech Mrs May laid out in very broad terms what she would like the future trade deal to be. It was neither a CETA free trade deal or membership of the EEA. It was something in between. This is what she said:
"One way of approaching this question is to put forward a stark and unimaginative choice between two models: either something based on European Economic Area membership; or a traditional Free Trade Agreement, such as that the EU has recently negotiated with Canada. I don’t believe either of these options would be best for the UK or best for the European Union".
It is obvious that we are asking again for something that is just impossible. The flexibility that Canada has under a CETA style agreement with the internal market access of a member state but without paying anything or coming under ECJ jurisdiction.
In Florence Mrs May said:
"As for a Canadian style free trade agreement, we should recognise that this is the most advanced free trade agreement the EU has yet concluded and a breakthrough in trade between Canada and the EU. But compared with what exists between Britain and the EU today, it would nevertheless represent such a restriction on our mutual market access that it would benefit neither of our economies. Not only that, it would start from the false premise that there is no pre-existing regulatory relationship between us. And precedent suggests that it could take years to negotiate. We can do so much better than this".
Now Michel Barnier speaking to newspapers has said:
“From the moment the UK told us that it wants out of the single market and the customs union, we will have to work on a model that is closer to the agreement signed with Canada. The single market is a set of rules and standards and is a shared jurisdiction. Its integrity is non-negotiable, as is the autonomy of decisions of the 27. Either you’re in or you’re out.”
He has said we are likely to be offered a trade deal little better than Canada has and it would have to be negotiated over “several years” and “will be very different” from the status quo according to reports (HERE).
I assume this is what the prime minister would call a bad deal, one which she would resist. If so, we would be in the ridiculous position of rejecting what the prime minister herself has called the most advanced FTA concluded by the EU for trading on basic WTO terms. It would look like we have finally gone totally insane.
