Monday, 23 October 2017

EU CITIZENS REGISTRATION SCHEME IN DOUBT

It looks like another huge problem for the government will be in resolving the status of EU citizens after March 2019. They are planning to have EU nationals register, during any transition period, as a way of obtaining permanent residency. But the EU parliament now say (HERE) they will veto this if it becomes part of the withdrawal agreement. The EU is apparently going to demand the UK comply with EU law in its entirety during any transition period, precisely as they set out in their initial negotiating guidelines.

Under EU law it is illegal to discriminate between EU and UK citizens. If EU citizens are asked to register then everyone must register. The Home Office is already struggling to cope with a surge in applications from EU citizens living here legally who are applying for permanent residence to regularise their status. This is just a tiny fraction of the total who are here and an even tinier fraction of the total population.

We need a transition period to avoid a cliff edge. Whatever anyone says, leaving the EU and trading on WTO terms would be catastrophic for this country. Those like Liam Fox, John Redwood, John Longworth and others who claim it will be plain sailing because we already trade with the rest of the world on WTO terms are just plain wrong. The EU know this even if they don't. Sooner or later it will become clear. It is why business leaders are writing to David Davis (HERE) demanding a transition period.

If the EU parliament has a veto (and it has) they will have the power to condemn us to a catastrophe and I assume therefore, even our mendacious politicians will have to conceded the registration process will have to wait or even be abandoned altogether.

The whole question of what will apply during any transition is another huge problem for the government. Do they spend time arguing with the EU over bespoke details about which parts of the acquis will apply or do they accept we will simply continue as we are now, fully under the ECJ and the union acquis and face down the Brexiteers or do we ignore the wishes of the five big business organisations who are calling for a quick legally watertight transition period?  They can placate the extremists and watch jobs disappear into the EU or placate the CBI and the others and face the fury of the Daily Mail. What a quandary! Only 521 days to go.