The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board have carried out a detailed study of what might happen to the farming sector in the event of various outcomes from the negotiations (HERE). They believe that if we exit the EU without a trade deal in place, farm incomes will be cut from an average of £38,000 to just £15,000. I assume there will be some farmers who will be listening with some nervousness to the hard Brexiteers and their call for us to leave on WTO terms.
In Manchester for the Stop Brexit march on 1st October, I met a farmer who was a staunch remainer but who had many farmer friends that voted to leave the EU - for all sorts of spurious reasons. One, a chicken farmer, apparently voted to leave because, "What have the EU ever done for chicken farmers?". If we get a trade deal with the US and chlorinated chicken is permitted in this country he will find out!
Cereal and dairy farmers would apparently be the hardest hit.
DEFRA rejects the report and thinks it's all hypothetical but since the government is increasingly talking about a no-deal scenario perhaps the AHDB are closer to the coming reality than DEFRA might believe. Julian Sturdy, Conservative MP for York Outer was one of those farmers who urged us all to vote leave. I wonder what he thinks now?
