David Davis, in giving evidence to the Select Committee this week referred to Karel de Gucht, a former EU Trade Commissioner. Davis used him to support his assertion that a trade deal by next autumn is possible - something that almost no one else believes is remotely conceivable. I always find it useful to check when people say things which seem to go against received opinion and so I Googled it.
Mr de Gucht is quoted in The Daily Mail (HERE) from January this year and it's true that he said that we, "could make an agreement within a very reasonable period of time because we know each other". He went on, "I am reading everywhere that it takes five, six, seven, eight years to do a trade negotiation. Yes that's true but it's not for technical reasons, it's because you can't get an agreement".
Mr de Gucht is quoted in The Daily Mail (HERE) from January this year and it's true that he said that we, "could make an agreement within a very reasonable period of time because we know each other". He went on, "I am reading everywhere that it takes five, six, seven, eight years to do a trade negotiation. Yes that's true but it's not for technical reasons, it's because you can't get an agreement".
The Mail headline stretches credulity a bit because it claims: "Britain CAN seal a quick trade deal with the EU if both sides are sensible". But this is like saying we can agree things provided we agree things. The present impasse on the separation issues are a case in point. They could have been settled quickly but here we are seven months later and apparently at deadlock - because they can't reach an agreement.
These are the straws Davis clings to. The Daily Express (HERE) has more from Mr de Gucht and uses an interview on Radio 4 last July to quote him saying:
However, Mr De Gucht hinted any of the 27 remaining EU member states could block any trade talks if they feel Britain were being given a favourable deal, which helps them compete against the bloc’s members.
“Why would it not be possible? But it won’t be easy,” he said.
“I personally think it will be in our mutual interest to have a good trade deal, but I’m quite sure, for example, the European Union or the remaining member states will say we are not going to enter into a trade deal that is giving all kind of possibilities to Great Britain to compete from the outside.”
So, there will not be a quick trade deal (unless we agree on everything more or less straightaway) and when we do it will be significantly worse than our present status.
