May's disastrous conference speech (HERE) already has people calling for her to step down. Some think she will be gone by Christmas. It is surely the beginning of the end for the Tories. They are not flush with potential leaders when idiots like Johnson and Rees-Mogg are the front runners. The pro and anti EU factions are eyeing each other warily. Neither side is prepared to see a leader from the other and there does not appear to be an obvious unity candidate.
Nick Timothy, the former aide she was forced to sack, says (HERE) it isn't just her it's the whole party that needs to "pull itself together". But it's clear Mrs May cannot do it and if there was a credible candidate she would be gone in ten seconds. It is the lack of any clear alternative which will perhaps in the end force the party to keep her limping on but she is seriously weakened and one wonders for how long it can continue. Already there are reports of 30 or so MPs plotting to see her replaced (HERE).
But if she does go, who might take over? There really are no good options. The new leader will only exacerbate the divisions. After Cameron resigned, pro EU Conservative MPs probably thought immediately after the referendum that they had to provide the membership with a choice of leaders who were pro Brexit. May had quickly switched sides after a low key campaign and was seen as a soft leaver. She seemed to bridge the divide. When hard Brexiteer Leadsom withdrew, May got the job. Time has elapsed now. The EU negotiations are not going well. Would the majority of Tory MPs, mostly remainers, still feel the ballot paper should have two hard Brexiteers? Maybe not.
And in that circumstance what would Brexiteers do? The party would almost certainly split in my opinion. Pro EU Labour MPs might work with centre right Tories and form a pro EU government. Who knows?
We are in the middle of the most complex and wide ranging negotiations this country has ever faced. The outcome could impact our future for years (although I think and hope we will be back inside the EU very soon) and the negotiations, started by the Conservatives, could see a different party or even a coalition finish them or even ask for the Article 50 Notification to be withdrawn. Everything is possible.
In her speech yesterday (full version HERE) she talked again of getting a "deep and special partnership". That "is our ambition and our offer" and in making it her "offer" she said: "I look forward to that offer receiving a positive response". She must know that there cannot be a positive response while the "phase one" issues are still unresolved and until there has been "sufficient progress" on these, there can be no discussion on a "deep and special partnership", or anything else for that matter.
To add to the pressure on her, Reuters (HERE) carried an item about a BoE Deputy Governor, Sam Woods, saying unless there was a "watertight transition deal" in place by Christmas UK banks will have to start applying for licences to allow them to operate in the EU after Brexit. The report said the USA has forced foreign banks operating there to set up holding companies with their own capital, and the European Union is following suit. We have three months and there is no sign of a breakthrough or detailed progress. A crunch moment is coming. Do we walk away without a deal or do we compromise? I think we all know the answer. What a humiliation this will be.
