Thursday 12 October 2017

MINFORD - ECONOMY GROWING STEADILY!

Patrick Minford, one of the well-known Economists for Brexit, thinks our economy is growing steadily (HERE). His group is a tiny number of economists who are swimming against the tide of statistics and his article for Brexit Central has the title: The Bank of England is finally adjusting to the fact that the British economy is growing steadily. This because the monetary policy committee is said to be looking at raising interest rates.

But Bloomberg (HERE) thinks the BoE is acting from weakness not strength and the interest rate move signals something rotten in the economy, a return to so-called stagflation or inflation and stagnation at the same time. And The Independent (HERE) has an altogether different take on things, reporting the downgrading of our economy by the IMF, the record £14.2 billion trade gap in goods in August and the fact we are grew at half the rate of the Eurozone in the second quarter of the year.

The website Politico also picks up on the IMF report (HERE). The Guardian (HERE) reports on the OBR's gloomy forecast for productivity growth over the next five years and how this will limit the Chancellor's room for fiscal changes to help offset Brexit related uncertainty.

At the moment Economists for Brexit and the Brexiteers can just about support the claim that the referendum hasn't caused a meltdown, but for how much longer can they keep going?  The next six months will tell, particularly if the talks with the EU look like ending in deadlock.

And today Rabobank, a Dutch based company says a hard Brexit will cost us up to 18% of GDP by 2030 or about £400 billion a year (HERE). I suppose Minford will say it's scaremongering.