Amazing as it may seem, there are still apparently intelligent people calling for a no deal exit from the EU, or at least the threat of one. Phillip Johnson at the Telegraph (HERE) is the latest. Even the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, David Davis, said in his speech to conference yesterday that Whitehall is actively planning for such an outcome. These are completely empty threats and I assume they know it. The EU certainly do.
The implications for leaving without a deal are profound. There would be chaos. Food shortages would follow and prices would increase because of it. Rationing may be needed. Flights to and from the UK would stop. Huge queues of trucks would be seen at Dover as customs checks and inspections take much longer. Businesses would be hit by shortages. The cross border supply chains that keep industry going would be broken or disrupted. Under these circumstances it is hard to see any government surviving.
There would be corresponding difficulties in Europe but on a smaller scale and spread over a larger area and population. Both UK and EU economies would be hit but the far bigger EU economy would suffer a mild jolt while we would suffer an earthquake.
I can only assume that those calling for no deal either don't realise the seriousness of it or they do but only want to make threats to force concessions out of the EU.
However, this is dangerous, whatever the reason. Many ordinary people believe that we can just pack up and leave. All of the delays and transition periods being talked about are mystifying to the average Mail/Sun/Telegraph reader. They actually think a no-deal exit is an option and the more senior and authoritative the voices making these calls are, the more the idea is reinforced. At some point, if the negotiations turn nasty and the EU do not bend, it will be necessary either to actually crash out without a deal or admit the weakness of our position. Better to begin the managing of expectations now rather than continuing to build up hopes that will inevitably have to be dashed.
Update: Even The Telegraph's Europe editor, Peter Foster, says the EU do not believe her threat to walk out (HERE).
Update: Even The Telegraph's Europe editor, Peter Foster, says the EU do not believe her threat to walk out (HERE).
