Sir Martin Donelly's article in The Observer today (HERE) is a wonderful example of the work of a former mandarin. It's an open letter to MPs urging them to be cautious about leaving the single market with warnings for what it might mean in terms of lost jobs and missed opportunities. Clear and compelling, I think it is probably similar to the kind of things senior civil servants have been telling government ministers for the past two years.
Unfortunately, none of it has worked. And bad as Sir Martin says our post Brexit economy will be, and it is a bleak picture he paints, its nowhere near as pessimistic as that predicted by Dr Richard North (HERE). He claims that when we become a third country the regulatory approvals that the UK provided to the car, chemicals and pharmaceutical industries will not be recognised and companies will need to apply to the EU for EU wide approval for a whole host of products that are being freely exported today. Manufacturing for export will have to stop while this is done.
And the Observer also carries an article about Sir Martin's letter (HERE). The most telling point is that comment from an EU official about Davis' comparison of Norway with the UK's much larger economy. Davis said, in terms, that because we were bigger we deserved a better trade deal. Not so, says the official. In fact, quite the opposite. Norway is a fish and oil economy. They are not a competitor like we are, and we have made matters worse by suggesting deregulation so there will have to be safeguards and this means just a standard free trade deal, not the deep and special partnership Mrs May wants.
I read an article last week by someone claiming that the greatest obstacle to Brexit was the Brexiteers themselves. They are their own saboteurs. Brexit could have been a minor disaster if we had simply remained in the customs union and the internal market, but they insisted we must leave with a clean break, including from the ECJ. A minor disaster might just have been sellable to a majority in this country, although this must be doubtful given the current opinion polling, but the catastrophic economic damage about to engulf us most certainly will not be. Brexit cannot therefore last very long, if we get it at all.
