This item from The Independent (HERE) explains why we need a transition deal. March 2019 is far too soon to get Dover ready for the new customs regime that will be needed - whether we get a deal or not. New facilities will be needed and as the article explains a new 1000 place lorry park was approved two years ago at Stanford, close to Dover, but has not yet been built because residents are objecting to it through the courts!
It is utterly impossible to agree a trade deal by March 2019 and until we reach an agreement nobody even knows what to actually plan for. Brexiteers are arguing that money should be spent now on preparing the country for no deal and operating under WTO rules.
Separately, the public accounts committee has told the government it has serious concerns that we will be able to get a viable customs system in place by March 2019 (HERE). There are 132,000 companies that trade with Europe and who will need to make customs declarations after Brexit with HMRC having to cope with a five fold increase in the number of declarations handled. This will take the annual number from 50 million to 255 million. HMRC has a new system due to come on stream in January 2019, just two months before Brexit. This needs another £7.3 million to be spent to increase its capacity but it remains work in progress and there is no guarantee it will be ready in time or that it will work as planned.
The committee heard evidence that “a failed customs system could therefore lead to huge disruption for business with delays potentially causing massive queues at Dover and resulting in food being left to rot in trucks at the border”.
Earlier testimony given by HMRC bosses to the committee claimed that it could take £800m and 5,000 extra staff to develop a new Brexit-proof customs system. The HMRC chief executive, Jon Thompson, warned this could take between five and seven years to get a streamlined system to deal with imports and exports in place.
Governments of all complexions have usually failed spectacularly with large IT systems so I wouldn't be too sure it will all come together. And note the HMRC is also “currently managing an unsustainable amount of change” with a major transformation programme in 15 areas, including making tax payments digital. What could go wrong?
