Sunday 26 November 2017

FOCUS GROUPS WON IT FOR LEAVE

There's an interesting piece HERE about the focus groups that both the leave and remain campaigns ran before the referendum. Leave got the phrase "take back control" from their focus groups because the idea of losing control came up spontaneously about immigration and other EU related issues. Also, Dominic Cummings wanted to avoid having specific answers because he knew they would only split the leave vote. 

So the idea was developed that if you thought any particular issue was a problem then "take back control" was a sort of universal answer, a panacea for every perceived EU ill.  And it worked.

But by far the most interesting thing is that of the remain focus group experience. Those in the groups who did not have strong feelings either way, in other words the very people you needed to concentrate on, could not come up with a single reason to remain in the EU. But they could easily think of all the core arguments for leaving. Their only slight concern was the economic uncertainty and so this became the basis for the remain campaign's so called project fear.

Of course, this is all in the past now but we can draw some encouraging conclusions I think.

Firstly, given that undecided voters couldn't think of any positive reasons to remain, the vote was surprisingly close.

Secondly, you cannot achieve a smooth, orderly Brexit and a prosperous economy based on a mantra. Take back control only works until you have to actually do things, in other words begin to take back control. This will expose the vacuousness of the campaign offer.

Thirdly, as time goes on reasons for being in the EU are becoming clearer. The chaos and damage to the economy caused by leaving a market of the richest 440 million consumers market on earth. All of the air, maritime and medicine safety agencies and dozens of other trans national bodies that we will have to recreate. The slower growth and reduced security as well as the difficulty in producing your own distinctive environmental, consumer and employment protection policies in the shadow of the much larger EU. To say nothing of the problems in negotiating all of the free trade deals that we will need.

All of this gives me confidence that sooner or later, the British people will wake up to reality and reverse Brexit. It is the only possible outcome.