The PM was apparently discussing an increase in the divorce bill (HERE) yesterday. This is the one we were not going to pay but now it seems we are. Just one of the many U turns and climb downs that the government has had to slowly and painfully undertake. The Kings College blog has an item from Saturday setting out the predictable path the negotiations have taken up to now (HERE).
The Today programme this morning is carrying reports that the government has agreed to pay more for the Brexit bill - but only on condition that trade talks begin next month. We continue the Monty Pythonesque charade that we are somehow in control. It's like going into a newspaper shop and agreeing to hand over money only on condition the proprietor hands over a newspaper! And in any case only offering about two thirds of the price. It would almost be funny if it wasn't so tragic.
I agree with Professor Anand Menon who wrote the Kings College post. It has all been entirely predictable - except that is, to the PM, David Davis, Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and the other delusionals in the Brexit camp. According to The Guardian (HERE) Mrs May is expected to come under pressure to "justify" paying an increased bill of £40 billion, with Johnson in particular wanting to get the EU to offer some special trade deal before agreeing the payment.
The are still totally in denial about the money. The £50 or £60 billion final bill (for this is what we will end up paying) is for past commitments and has nothing, repeat nothing, to do with our future relationship with the EU, except we won't have one at all unless we pay.
All of the separation issues including the Irish border, citizens rights and the money should have been settled months ago and here we are about ten days from the deadline with the cabinet Brexit committee - on it's first meeting note - tip toeing towards the position on money everybody knew in June they would have to come to. Hammond implied that we will come up with a proposal (it's assumed this will include more money) before the December summit but I think this might be too late. If Mrs May waits until a day or two before EU leaders meet it will not give sufficient time for the EU27 to agree a common line so they will, I'm sure, defer any decision until next year in any case and the only real impact will be the loss of more of the extremely limited negotiating time.
And on the Irish border? Nothing. To add to the difficulties, the DUP (HERE) is maintaining Northern Ireland will leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK. This scuppers one possible solution which is to have NI remain in the customs union. I wonder if Mrs May now regrets calling the election and having to do a deal with the DUP?
The EU's chief negotiator has now also made it clear that there can be no sectoral access to the single market (HERE) with particular emphasis on financial passporting. He said on Monday:
“The legal consequence of Brexit is that the UK financial service providers lose their EU passport. This passport allows them to offer their services to a market of 500 million consumers and 22 million businesses."
This also was entirely predictable and was the "logical consequence of the UK decision to take back control" according to Barnier. We look dafter by the day.
