There is an interesting article about stopping Brexit in The New Statesman (HERE). It doesn't actually suggest a plan or a plot, although that's in the title of the piece, but lists ways that the insanity might be halted by various events. It talks about politicians who voted remain and believe that Brexit is wrong but nevertheless are supporting the government because it's the "will of the people" and I think this is part of the key.
Caroline Flint, MP for Doncaster, for example voted remain and says the most common reaction of voters in her constituency, whether they voted leave or remain, is to tell politicians to stop bickering and "get on with it".
What I take from this is that many, if not the overwhelming majority of remainers are under the mistaken impression that leaving and remaining are more or less the same thing. It's why a lot of voters made the decision almost on the flip of a coin on the way to the polling booth. Both sides of the campaign were liars weren't they? None of them were to be trusted. And afterwards, almost to the present day there is still nothing definite about Brexit.
The economic shock that remainers warned about didn't materialise and while things have slowed down a bit, they aren't that bad.
Brexiteers promised a prosperous future and many people still believe this will happen - eventually.
In short the electorate so far have little to go on that might confirm their choice or cause them to rethink. The erroneous belief that being out of the EU is the same or not very different to being in still holds good. But it cannot last. Several things will happen as the negotiations go disastrously wrong.
Firstly, the absolutely inevitable economic consequences will become clear. Of this I have no doubt. EU workers returning home, uncertainty, slowing investment, squeezed incomes, rising personal debt, European companies triggering relocation plans will all have an impact. Continental companies will start to look for locally sourced goods to avoid border checks and disruption to supply chains. The effects will be unavoidable.
Secondly, as time passes the referendum result will lose authority. It might have been the will of the people in June 2016 and in the months that followed but it cannot be said to represent the settle will of the British people for all time. And the more time passes its invocation becomes weaker.
Thirdly, as the first two things converge, and they will, politicians who are secret remainers will be emboldened. Remainer MPs in majority leave constituencies are naturally reluctantly to speak out. In a representative democracy like ours they are supposed to "represent" the people and no doubt it's hard to claim you are doing this when you are clearly not. Most MPs are more followers than leaders, waiting to see what direction the mob is taking before charging after them. But when the mob decide to make a U turn many MPs will feel more able to lead the debate.
So, we are in the rather odd position where the voters don't yet know what's waiting down the track and the politicians are scared to tell them. The situation is not as secure as Brexiteers think or would like. It is very fragile. Support for Brexit is wide but very shallow.
Remainers have become slightly cowed by Brexiteers when the prospect of a second referendum is raised and most politicians who think exiting the EU is a catastrophe are surprisingly shy about calling for a second vote. But not so that American banker, Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs who is openly saying (HERE) we should have another vote to confirm there is still a consensus for such a "monumental and irreversible" decision.
If I save something on my computer and later decide to delete it, I am asked if I'm sure before the file is deleted. Even then it goes into the recycle bin from which it's still reversible. But on the question of membership of the EU we get a campaign of lies, one vote and that's it.
Brexit is like a bi-stable device, likely to flip rapidly from one state to another. When a slight change in the public mood is detectable you can be sure politicians will sense the movement and find ways to encourage it. And where one does so more will come out and so the whole public debate will be shifted. This is what I hope for anyway.
