Tuesday 28 November 2017

THE BILL, THE BILL? WHAT BILL?

There was an interesting if fanciful item in The Sunday Times this weekend claiming that we have come to some sort of understanding with the EU that the so called divorce bill will be kept secret (HERE) even when we have reached the final agreement. This will be interesting. What is apparently being suggested is that the amount of money "may never be known".

This is wishful thinking. An anonymous EU official is quoted as saying:

“The withdrawal agreement will not contain a figure — the Brits only need to indicate what, and how. Not how much. 

“It will all be about the presentation in order to help May and her cabinet deal with the political sensitivities. But the stars are aligned for a successful deal.

“We are in the business of securing an agreement. We need to improve the atmosphere in order to move on to the real difficult bit — the trade deal.”

The "political sensitivities" means the backlash from the loony Brexiteers and the right wing press at the idea we are paying any money at all. If Theresa May thinks they will not be like a dog with a bone to find out or calculate the bill for themselves she is mistaken. And to believe that 27 different nation's finance ministries will not have a figure in mind or will keep quiet about the total really is wishful thinking of the highest order. And parliament will also be very interested as will The Treasury and the OBR,

Where the official is being realistic is the difficulty in coming to a trade deal. And this then leads on to how you determine the length of the transition period. I can't see the point in having a time limited transition if you don't know how long the trade deal (the end point for any transition) is going to take. But the Brexiteers foam at the mouth if anyone proposes an open ended transition period. They somehow think the EU is like North Korea from which we must escape as soon as possible and at whatever cost.