Mrs May's speech to the CBI yesterday did not give business any of the reassurance they were seeking about a transition (HERE). And amazingly, she still clings to the idea we can agree a free trade deal with the EU by this time next year - something no one else believes is remotely possible. This in spite of warnings by the confederation's leaders that companies are already beginning to put contingency plans in place for a hard Brexit.
Also, yesterday there was a debate in parliament about our membership of the EEA in which the government, in the guise of Steve Baker, claimed that we will leave the EEA automatically on the day we leave the EU. But there is considerable uncertainty whether this is the case or not. We are part of the EEA by virtue of a treaty signed in 1993 which has a specific article (127) about withdrawal. Some critics of the government have said we need to trigger Article 127 to give the other parties twelve month's notice of our intention to leave. Dr Richard North discusses this in his blog posting (HERE). His argument is based on text by legal scholars that claims where a treaty sets out provisions for withdrawal, they must be followed and parties cannot rely on any automaticity in order to legally exit such a treaty. He suggests this may be subject to a legal challenge. If so it would be yet another minefield for the government to negotiate.
And apparently we still have no idea of the costs of replicating all of the EU agencies that we would automatically leave if we crash out without a deal, according to this article in The Huffington Post (HERE). Stunning though this is, it is not as amazing as the arrogance of DEFRA who, when asked, said they have not yet decided whether to continue membership of the European Environment Agency. As if we have a choice!
I really don't know what the EU will make of this. On the one hand they will no doubt be strengthened by the realisation that our planning is essentially non existent. On the other hand they probably despair at what they must see as the fantasy world the UK government is living in. We seem to think we can leave and then arrogantly pick and choose which agencies we want to carry on being part of.
It may well suit the EU to have the UK remain a partner in many areas but if we think they will welcome us with open arms we may be surprised. We will probably pay a high price.
Finally, Jonathan Lis, a journalist, has been in Brussels and tweeted (HERE) about the new pessimism he found there among officials. There is growing concern that Mrs May is rowing back from what they believed were firm commitments already made and they are not convinced Mrs May and David Davis understand the process or what no deal would actually mean. They are unsure if civil servants are misleading them or that they are not listening. The prospect of trade talks starting in December is no longer seen as certain and some are now putting the risk of the UK leaving without a deal at greater than 50% and they are now actively preparing for such an outcome. This is all very worrying.
We have a government that is as ignorant as it is arrogant and a clock slowly ticking down to zero like in one of those disaster movies. At some point we are going to need a hero to appear and stop the timer or cut a wire to save the nation from a catastrophe. That's how it happens in Hollywood anyway but perhaps best not to rely on a superhero - although we can keep praying.
