I've written posts before about the absolute mess we're making of Brexit but as we begin the second 500 days of the process, the difficulties and problems are coming every thicker and faster. It's hard to know if anyone is actually keeping track of it all and when the point will eventually come that the government realises the scale of the risks, gives up and admits Brexit is impossible.
Yesteday morning the NAO (National Audit Office) released a 26 page report (HERE) setting out the daunting tasks that need to be done to achieve Brexit. Over 300 work streams, 1000 pieces of secondary legislation, ten major acts of parliament with departments desperately planning for an orderly Brexit as well as a no deal scenario and trying to cope with ordinary day to day stuff. It is utterly terrifying and fraught with problems. To imagine it will all go smoothly has to be the delusional's delusion.
We then learn that Michel Barnier has prepared guidelines for the next phase suggesting a transition deal will not be agreed until October 2018 (HERE). He is said to be prepared to push for a "standstill" agreement to be settled quickly. What the difference is I am not sure. I assume this is for the status quo to continue after March 2019 but with us stripped of all voting rights. How this will go down with Rees-Mogg et al is anybody's guess. Industry won't be entirely happy with uncertainty continuing for another year either. The report also notes that the EU will only agree to a transition that is "necessary, legally feasible and in the Union's interests". This reference to legal feasibility will also alarm business. What does it mean? Is there some doubt?
David Davis, with his speech in Berlin on Thursday, was hoping to persuade German business leaders to press for a comprehensive free trade deal but was met with "derision and disbelief" according to The Telegraph HERE. When this most pro Brexit newspaper is reporting in such terms you know you're in trouble.
Mrs May is in Sweden for a summit and met the Irish PM Leo Varadka. He has apparently told her he will block any trade talks unless we come up with concrete proposals on the border issue, telling her that talk of a solution being close is "wishful thinking" (HERE). So much for Davis telling everyone we had already produced detailed plans for the Irish border. We have not.
You can get a good idea how well things are going on Brexit when Brexiteers start to attack each other. Last week it was Gove and Johnson writing a secret letter to the PM implicitly critical of DEXEU and the planning for Brexit. Davis was said to be furious. By implication it was also critical of him as Secretary of State at DEXEU. This weekend two articles appear in The Telegraph. The first one, by Charles Moore, asks if it's time to get annoyed with Davis and questions what he has accomplished (HERE).
And then a second article (HERE) claiming that Davis might quit because he's being sidelined by civil servants and not shown policy documents, including the one submitted by Gove and Johnson. It all sounds like a soap opera.
The Brexiteers and their supporters in the right wing press were highly critical of Cameron and his failure to get more from his negotiations with the EU. They obviously thought they could all do better and hailed Davis as the bruiser who would sort out those intransigent gits in Brussels. They are now discovering Davis can't actually do it. There may well be another Brexiteer, perhaps Johnson and after he's sacked they may pick Gove to have a go. Finally, they may get the message. The penny will drop. We are in a weak position. Brexit is going to damage us. There is no upside to it.
