The EU guidelines for the next phase have now been agreed (HERE) and they show how the EU intend to manage things, particularly the transition period. It makes perfectly clear the transition period was requested by the UK and not the EU. I think this was aimed at the people who thought they needed us more than we need them.
It uses the word "participate" to describe what we will not be doing as far as the EU institutions, bodies, organisations and agencies are concerned. In other words we will be well and truly OUT of the EU. However, nobody in this country will notice any difference whatsoever since we will also have to comply with the entire acquis, including new regulations and directives as they become necessary. It will be precisely as set out in the original 29th April guidelines where we comply with the full regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judicial and enforcement mechanisms.
This will be a national humiliation and will cause a huge row in the Conservative party but we will have to accept it - or suck it up, as the leavers tell us we had to as far as the referendum result was concerned.
More than this, the transition period is for two years but it is virtually guaranteed that more time will be needed and will take us beyond the next election. No serious commentators think we can agree a comprehensive trade deal, especially including services, in two years. And note the final guidelines talk about the UK government's decision to no longer "participate" in the single market.
Perhaps this is the word remainers should have used in the campaign. Leavers insisted that everyone had "access" to the single market and there was never a counter argument that differentiated between trade with and access to, or participation in, the internal market. Everyone trades with the EU but only members participate in it.
The next phase will be more difficult and we have only about the same amount of time to reach agreement. Next year will be even more fascinating than last, and that's saying something.
