Saturday, 23 December 2017

MORE LEGAL HEADACHES FOR MAY

A Scottish court has now ruled that a group of anti-Brexit Scottish members of parliament can go-ahead and pursue legal action to establish whether the United Kingdom can unilaterally stop the process of leaving the EU (HERE). This is one more legal headache for Mrs May in 2018.

There is some debate about whether or not the UK has the right to withdraw the Article 50 notification with different legal opinions. Michel Barnier thinks it will take a unanimous decision by all 27 members to halt it while others, including Lord Kerr who helped to draft the article, thinks we can simply withdraw it.

If it turns out that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally it will be make the latter part of 2018 extremely fraught. The EU may be tempted to offer a bad deal, MPs could be emboldened to oppose Brexit, especially if the economy starts to look sick. The government is making an almighty mess of the process, stumbling towards the exit like drunken incompetents in a hall of distorting mirrors. Anything can happen.

There is all to play for.