I am interested in the polling since this is key to reversing Brexit. There is no chance of changing course without another referendum (or a clear general election pledge to remain in the EU) and without a big and consistent shift in public opinion, there will not be another referendum. So, I was interested in a report which The Telegraph covered (HERE) yesterday from NatCen and written by Professor John Curtice.
The Telegraph reported it with the headline: UK public still set on Brexit despite growing pessimism on exit deal. The reader is invited to conclude that the average leave voter is a masochist and is prepared for almost any hardship provided we exit the EU. This may be true but I am not totally convinced. And there are perhaps more reasons for remainers to be happy than the article lets on.
You can see the entire report HERE.
The polling data clearly shows that the pessimism about getting a good deal has grown markedly since February, rising from 37% to 52%. Meanwhile the percentage of voters believing the government is doing a good job has almost halved, from 29% to 15%. A majority now expect to be worse off (52%) and would accept freedom of movement in return for free trade (53%). So, the Telegraph is right about the pessimism.
Now for a bit of background. The data is solid. It comes from the most well respected psephologist and was 2168 people. But, there are several points that the paper did not mention. The data was collected at the end of October well before the £50 billion divorce settlement or the more recent issue of the Irish border came out, so people were not clear just how badly it is going.
Of the latest poll 53% would vote remain and 47% leave, but the poll notes this is the same percentage that they got back in September 2016, although the people polled said they voted 51% to leave in June 2016. So, what professor Curtice concludes is this:
"So, at most what the latest survey suggests is that there might have been a two point swing in favour of Remain since the EU referendum, but, if so, there is no evidence that that swing has increased in the wake of the increased pessimism about the handling and outcome of the EU negotiations".
In other words those who changed their minds did so before September 2016 and not because of the government's disastrous handling of the negotiations. And listen to this in a footnote (page 20):
We should also note that most of the swing since June 2016 reflects reported differential abstention/turnout rather than voters changing their mind. Amongst those who voted Leave in 2016, 6% say that they would not vote again, whereas only 1% of Remain voters give the same response. Meanwhile, amongst those who did not vote in 2016, 48% say they would now vote Remain, while only 28% state that they would vote Leave.
What I take from the report and what I believe is:
1. There is no great move to being more enthusiastic for leaving the EU.
2. The polls were taken before the really bad news came in.
3. Note that 6% of leave voters say they would not vote again, compared to 1% of remain voters
4. Non voters in 2016 would now vote 48% to remain against 28% who would vote to leave.
5. If there is a shift it is towards remain by up to 2%.
6. Young voters prefer to remain by 3:1 and this will increasingly weigh on the remain side
7. The bad news is just going to keep on coming from now on.
8. Remainers in parliament are becoming more energised
Brexit is beginning to crumble. I often read the Conservative Home website and there has been a clear shift in my opinion. There is more criticism of May and Davis, far more pro EU voices and much less comment supporting Brexit as if those voices are becoming more subdued and less able to defend the mess that Brexit is fast becoming.
