You have to laugh. If the Brexiteers thought the EU would allow us to discard regulations to gain a competitive advantage they have another think coming. According to The Guardian (HERE) EU negotiators are drafting a clause for the trade talks that will enable them to apply tariffs to goods if the UK tries to cut red tape or takes other measures that would enable us to benefit at their expense.
This is going to lock us in to EU regulations whether we like it or not. The EU will not accept assurances because, as they say, threats have been made. I think this is not just by Gove and Johnson in their recent leaked letter but also months ago by Phillip Hammond when he said we might turn ourselves into a European version of Singapore.
And the tariffs will not necessarily apply to the sector where we plan to cut bureaucracy or regulation but sectors where our exports are most significant. The Guardian call it a punishment clause which will enrage Fox and is perhaps a harbinger of how difficult the next phase of talks will be.
Brexiteers have openly said we want to strike a trade deal with the USA but the American Trade Secretary told us recently we would have to drop EU standards. So, we are going to have to choose. Do we want to keep our trade with the EU or gamble on replacing it by increasing trade with other nations in the future. Brexit always was a bad idea but it looks worse by the week.
And on the Irish border question, this news (HERE) is going to cause a few noses to be put out of joint in the ranks of the Brexiteers and the DUP. Ireland will have the final say on whether or not we move on to trade discussions. Donald Tusk was in Dublin for talks on Friday with the Taioseach and this is what was announced at the press conference afterwards.
I think we can be sure, given the extremely strong position that Ireland finds itself in, that there will not be a fudge. Any agreement will be absolutely clear about creating conditions that will not lead up to the need for a hard border. This means no customs posts and therefore no regulatory divergence. How this will be squared with the UK's aim of leaving the customs union and the single market and the DUP deal that Theresa May struck in the summer will be fascinating.
As next years deadline for a transition period approaches you can be sure there will be more climb downs as the weakness of our negotiating position is exposed.
