There are reports that diplomats will work over the coming weekend to try to find a solution to the Irish border problem (HERE) which should tell us all we need to know about the difficulty this issues poses to Brexit. Eight months on from triggering Article 50 and after nine months before that spent in "preparing" for it we discover that no one has thought in detail about how an invisible border can possibly work.
The Select Committee on Brexit has just released a report summarising progress in the negotiations and in the summary (point 10) they express doubt that the government's positions on leaving the customs union and the internal market can be reconciled with the no-hard-border stance they have also taken. The summary is HERE.
They are only saying openly, and officially, what many commentators and the EU have been saying for months. Ireland is portrayed in the Brexit cheerleading press as the awkward squad but this report backs their stance that if the UK government has actually got a workable plan, now is the time to produce it. Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister was on Radio 4 this morning. He was clear that no one has explained how you can have regulatory divergence without a hard border. And he seemed to say they are working to produce a form of words that will commit the British government to avoiding this divergence.
Strangely, this report follows hard on the heels of a session of the NI Affairs Committee this week where Robin Walker, junior minister at DEXEU, gave evidence and repeated the government position that it did not want to see a hard border. Richard North covered it HERE. Apparently, no one in the entire session raised the billion dollar question about how we could have no border or customs checks and at the same time comply with the non discrimination rules of the WTO. If we do not put up border inspection posts on the Irish border, every other WTO nation will demand their goods enter the UK on the same uninspected basis.
We would then enter Patrick Minford territory where all tariffs and regulatory barriers are dropped. Our own industries, including farming, would be destroyed by cheap competition. Goods would be cheaper in the shops but millions will be unable to afford them because they'll be unemployed and desperately looking for alternative work in new industries.
The DUP are alarmed by all this talk of creating a regulatory system in Northern Ireland that mirrors the EU. This is supposedly what negotiators have in mind but the DUP are adamant it cannot happen and have told Mrs May if she suggests anything that would make the province different to the rest of the Great Britain she cannot rely on their support (HERE).
What a problem this is turning out to be. We have until Monday to come up with a workable solution.
I do not believe, even if a solution is available, it will be found in a couple of days over a weekend just before the summit. And if some fudge is proposed I can't see that Dublin would accept it or that it would be a sound basis for a secure future either.
It does seem to be the biggest sticking point and I assume we will probably back down on some if not all of our red lines. Dublin have set five demands for the border (HERE) and these are:
- No regulatory divergence
- No customs complications or customs divergence
- No damage to the Good Friday agreement
- Binding commitment to the Common Travel Area
- Discussions on border to continue after phase 1
This is going to be hard for Mrs May and the DUP to swallow. It will be fascinating to see what the final agreement, if we get one, looks like and how many of these demands have been met. It will tells us how weak our own position actually is and how desperate we are to get on with trade talks.
