Saturday 17 February 2018

POLL 56 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The 56th poll in the WhatUKthinks series was published yesterday (HERE) and I'm glad to report that things are back to normal with WRONG again in the lead by 4% when people were asked: In hindsight was the UK right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Out of the first 26 polls WRONG was ahead in just one. In the last 29 WRONG has led 17 times. And RIGHT has been in front just twice in the last 17.

People are beginning to see the problems accumulating and unless you're totally blind to reality, you can see intelligent people arguing against Brexit and plenty of others disagreeing about what the future holds. And provided you don't rely entirely on The Daily Mail for your world view, it will be clear the pessimists are in a very big majority. This should give pause for thought at the very least.

This story on Sky (HERE) is typical. The head of the industry body Maritime UK, David Dingle, represents Britain's shipping industry and ports, as well as services such as ship financing and manufacture, says dealing with the government at the moment is like "banging your head against a brick wall".

He says doubling the time it takes lorries to get through the port of Dover, from two minutes to four minutes, could see permanent 20-mile-long motorway queues in Kent. Mr Dingle suggested the Government is "hoping for a technology solution" to customs checks by next year, but said that is "unrealistic".

Think about this. If we exit the customs union with a FTA there will have to be customs checks and Rules of Origin checks as well as sanitary and phyto-sanitary safety checks. It is bound to have a disruptive impact no matter how limited the sampling or how highly automated the systems are. I think most people will see on the government's present course a permanent 20-mile queue in Kent is unavoidable - to use M Barnier's favourite word..

In contrast Dublin is beginning preparatory work now (HERE). The Irish are really on the ball.

And note the Euro zone continues to outperform the UK (HERE) with the fastest economic growth in a decade according to the latest Eurostat figures. Industrial production in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.4 percent month-on-month for a 5.2 percent year-on-year gain. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent monthly and 4.2 percent annual rise.

These stories are going to fill the press in the coming months and the murmurings of dissent will only grow. Industry is finding its voice at last and sooner or later it will become a clamour that Theresa May and her shambolic government will be unable to ignore.