This is a good summary (HERE) of the current position in the negotiations from Tom Kibasi who is director of the Institute for Public Policy Research. He doesn't think we even understand the negotiating motives of the EU, which are far more focused on preserving the EU than in satisfying the fantasy demands of a soon-to-be former member.
I am sure he is right. So much time has been spent confidently predicting they will give us a good trade deal, even remainers probably thought it was true - and it may well be. But we have underestimated the determination of the EU not to break the existing model so that it cannot continue to develop.
Mr Kibasi says the EU had three strategies. First, was to contain Britain in the existing European system as a member state, achieved by reversing Brexit. He claims this strategy is the most preferred but least likely and isn't something they are actively pursuing, but neither does it act to exclude it.
The second alternative would be to create a new arrangement whereby Britain remains economically close to the EU, enjoying similar benefits to today, but is contained within a parallel system of rules – not EEA membership but a bespoke deal on similar principles. This would involve the customs union and the single market if we're interested.
The third option for the EU is to treat the UK as simply another “third country” with which an interests-based trade deal will be struck.
So, the EU are not pushing option 1, we have removed option 2 ourselves so Canada style FTA here we come. We will probably find out later today when the EU's guidelines are published.
