Monday 26 March 2018

POLLING

The Independent have published the results of a recent poll that suggests half of the population is braced for economic hardship after Brexit (HERE). But there are a couple of other results in the text which are I think more interesting. Firstly, 72% of people questioned say they are unclear about what the government wants to achieve in the negotiations. This is not the surprise though. No, it's the 28% who say they ARE clear! What? I read a lot about Brexit, including government position papers and select committee reports and I can see that neither the government nor MPs know where the country is headed. What do these 28% know that others don't?

I suspect the real answer is 100% of people don't know - up to and including Mrs May herself. The 28% in the poll don't know that they don't know - to use Donald Rumsfeld's phrase.

And the pollsters BMG Research also asked about whether we should stay in the EU and the answer? 53% think we should remain, 47% leave. This is exactly what the YouGov, WhatUKthinks series is finding, a slow realisation we have made a big mistake.

Isn't it insane? It will indeed be fascinating to see what the government will do when the final deal comes to parliament with the polls showing a regular and consistent majority against Brexit. Will they still go ahead? It would be electoral suicide - unless they were 100% certain the economy will suddenly be boosted by Brexit. All the forecasts are for the opposite.