POLLING

I thought you might like to see this (HERE) from The Telegraph yesterday. This very pro Brexit newspaper has virtually ignored the YouGov polling in the WhatUKthinks series which shows a slow but sure shift in public opinion. A narrow majority now believe the decision to leave the EU was wrong. But yesterday The Telegraph decided to run an article about it saying "we'd still probably vote for Brexit".

Note the "probably" in the headline. The writers say that a lot has changed since the referendum and then go on:

"But public perceptions have not shifted since the vote, according to the latest polling on how people would vote if there were another EU referendum today. Final polling before the June 2016 referendum suggested a slender lead for the Remain camp of two per cent, with the margin of error suggesting the result was uncertain.  The latest YouGov polling, conducted on March 6 2018, replicated those figures, with 45 per cent of people saying it was wrong to vote to leave the EU, compared with 43 per cent who said it was right".

See how they did that? 

YouGov find consistently in 21 polls since July 2017, with a single exception, a majority think the UK was wrong to vote to leave the EU but in an amazingly perverse conclusion, because remain had a slight lead a day or so before the actual referendum, The Telegraph say nothing has changed and that the result of a new referendum would "probably" be another victory for leave. 

Talk about scraping the bottom of the logic barrel!  This is the best The Telegraph can do apparently. It is whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up or a bit of displacement therapy to take their minds off the awful truth that is dawning on them. Brexit will be a disaster.

Another poll they mention from February also shows the number of people who think we'll be better off is falling (about 27% I think) and the number who think we'll be worse off is rising (41%).

So, bizarrely it seems people will vote for Brexit even if it makes them worse off . 

All I think we can say is that polling is still tight but actually, remain probably have a slight lead and I simply do not believe if it came to the crunch, people would willingly and knowingly vote to make themselves worse off. This would be doubly true if they had tangible proof that things were going downhill economically as they most certainly are.

Incidentally, there should be another YouGov poll coming shortly. I have no idea what the numbers will be but I am convinced we will soon be seeing support for thinking the decision was RIGHT drop below 40%. When the first 39% figure comes in I'll open a bottle of buubly!!