Friday 30 March 2018

POLLING

YouGov have published an article on their website (HERE) about current attitudes to Brexit. I am not sure it's good news or not. It confirms the marginal shift in the number of people who now think Brexit was a mistake and I think this marks the beginning of a reversal of Brexit.

However, 43% of people still want Brexit to go ahead on the government's current terms (assuming anybody knows what they are) while only 13% want to abandon it and stay in the EU.  YouGov explain this apparent paradox like this:


The reason for the contrast between the proportion of people thinking Brexit was the right choice and the higher number who think it should go ahead is that a minority of Remain voters (30% in our latest poll) nevertheless think that the government should go ahead with Brexit. This is presumably because they think the government has a duty to implement the referendum result.

We have noted this before and I am convinced this is due to several factors, not least of which is that only 10% of voters admit to following news report "very closely" while another 37% say they follow them "fairly closely".  I think even this stretches of the meaning of the word "follow" and my guess is they read filtered versions of the truth through the newspapers, especially the pro Brexit ones. I honestly think the problem is still ignorance. 

In other words some people (30% of the 16 million apparently) think Brexit is a mistake but believe we should go ahead anyway. They obviously think democracy is important but I am not convinced the referendum was democratic anyway. Were people well informed? I don't think so, but  even if we accept it was there must be a balance between accepting the "will of the people" and suffering the consequences of it. At the moment a lot of people don't see or realise what is about to happen in the next couple of years.

At the moment Leave or Remain to most people is a completely inconsequential thing. Until Brexit begins to really hit people directly or through family or friends the polls will shift only very slowly. But when it does watch for rapid changes.