More academic work has been done to try and predict how support for Brexit might change over time due to factors not connected with the negotiations or how good or bad the deal we might end up with is. The factors that this paper (HERE) examines are the rising numbers of people with a degree, the number of ethnic minority voters and the falling number of pro Brexit voters born before 1973.
The authors say these three factors will change the vote in favour of the EU by 7.4% by 2026.
They caution that this doesn't signal unqualified support for the EU since 60% of remain voters in 2016 thought EU powers should be reduced.
However, neither do they consider what will happen if the economy takes a big hit between now and 2021. I think this will sway even more voters.
There is an irony that we joined in 1973 because we had been falling economically behind the EEC for years - at least since 1950. After we joined we kept pace with the rest of the countries in the now EU. But as we are on the verge of leaving, the economy is slowing down and we will again start to fall behind. How much further we will drop back is up to the British people and perhaps a future more pro-EU party forcing both the Tory and Labour parties to propose rejoining - in much the same way as UKIP persuaded the Tories to hold a referendum about leaving.
There is no doubt Brexit is a passing thing.
