The economy continues to perform badly. The BCC have issued a warning that the economy is treading water and has been since the start of the year (HERE). Meanwhile there is concern about the car industry with a lengthy report (HERE) on the BBC website. It is rather sobering and should concern Brexiteers as well, but it probably won't because they either won't read it or won't believe it.
The UK market shrank by over 5% last year and is forecast to shrink by a further 5% this year. Exports dropped by 1% last year. According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders says, "The motor industry has taken advantage of the EU's single market as much as, perhaps more than, any other industry," says Mike Hawes, the chief executive. It follows that it will suffer disproportionately when we leave.
A number of consultants also comment and there seems to be no good news for car makers. They fear rising trade barriers between us and our largest overseas market. A few statistics make worrying reading for cross border trade. Something like 80% of cars made here are exported. About 80% of the parts and components used to build cars in the UK are imported from the EU, while 70% of the parts and components made in the UK are exported to EU countries. Any barriers to trade are bad.
Meanwhile the British housing market is flat due to changes in stamp duty and uncertainties about Brexit according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (HERE). They claim demand across Britain fell for the 12th month in a row, in gloomiest outlook for five years.
Reuters reported this week that factory output fell for the first time in almost a year (HERE) and The Guardian report that 6000 shops closed in a tough twelve months for the High Street (HERE) caused by Internet shopping, a weak pound, a fall in both consumer confidence and wages.
Finally the CEO of Airbus Airbus has issued a warning about a hard Brexit, suggesting it could cause business to grind to a halt (HERE). It would be a surprise to me if Airbus are not looking at options post Brexit. I believe their Filton site is really only design and development which could be moved without much trouble but the Broughton facility builds wings and replacing it will take significant investment but I would be amazed if they have no contingency plan ready to go. Airbus already builds wings and complete planes in Tianjin, China (HERE).
We underestimate countries in and out of the EU who are keen to capitalise on Brexit - and who can blame them. Wouldn't we do the same?
