It appears that the British proposals for avoiding a hard border in Ireland have been comprehensively trashed by the EU. According to The Telegraph (HERE) our negotiators over the past few weeks tabled detailed proposals which were then picked apart as the EU side explained why they were unworkable or prohibitively expensive. None of this should come as a surprise. Anyone who had the slightest understanding of the issues or had actually read the UK government's position paper of last July will have known the only possible outcome was total rejection by the EU. It was inevitable.
A couple of points to note. First of all, the next EU summit is in June, about six weeks away, by which time an agreed legal text has to be on the table. This is now impossible unless the so called fall back position of continued regulatory alignment is adopted. Even if the EU had accepted there was potential in one of the British ideas for avoiding a hard border, it would have been difficult to sort out all the details and get it into legal text. Now it's out of the question.
Secondly, The Telegraph seems to think this is only a problem of the customs union. It is definitely not and must involve the UK remaining in the single market.
Our negotiators are said to be surprised how inflexible the EU side has been. This is in spite of being told repeatedly for nearly two years that protecting the integrity of the single market is the most important issue for the EU 27. What we expected is for the EU to wave us farewell and then give us the same access to the single market as we used to have while then going through a massively expensive and disruptive process to completely rejig the customs union to help us avoid have a border in Ireland. And put a huge administrative burden on their businesses to collect tariffs. It was always insane to think this was ever a runner. The EU described it as magical thinking, now they have painstakingly explained, as if to children, why it is impossible.
The next logical steps. The government will refuse to accept the EU position right up to the June summit but will then capitulate. Talks will continue but no solution will be found. Eventually, the government will have to accept regulatory alignment is the ONLY solution and we will begin to look at the EEA option, albeit about eighteen months late. When people realise this means following many if not most EU laws without any influence over them, it will be crystal clear we might as well remain in the EU.
