Thursday 17 May 2018

A FREUDIAN SLIP?

I note quite a few people are referring to what they say was a Freudian slip yesterday during PMQs when the prime minister, in answer to a question from Jeremy Corbyn (HERE - Column 268), first set out the government's policy for future trade with the EU after leaving the customs union:

"This Government [has] a policy of leaving the customs union and of ensuring that, as we do so, we have as frictionless trade as possible with the EU, we have a solution that ensures we have no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and we have an independent trade policy".

But within a few seconds, in answer to another Corbyn question she is saying this:

"We want to ensure that we can continue to trade in as frictionless a way as possible. The suggestion that trade is entirely frictionless at the moment is not actually correct. We have set three very simple objectives for a future customs union. I will say to the House that achieving those objectives, which I have just set out, will not be easy—it will be difficult."

Whether it was Freudian or not, I think it reveals a bit of her thinking on this subject. She surely realises some kind of future customs arrangement is essential for cross border trade with the EU and this is the reason she has been clinging to the customs partnership and the Max-Fac solutions for so long. Sooner or later, she will also realise this is not just "difficult" - it's a dead end. All of her early talk of no deal being better than a bad deal, of which we hear nothing now, is being exposed for what it was - or we would have started preparations long ago.

In the absence of a solution which meets her three "very simple" objectives the choices are clear.

Leave next year with no deal (out of the question). Fudge things again and stay in the CU and the SM (essentially the EEA option or by extending Article 50) indefinitely or remain in the EU.

But staying in the CU and the SM indefinitely is not really a solution at all is it? It is delaying a solution and puts us in a perpetual limbo land of uncertainty with no one here or abroad knowing what our status is likely to be. We will have to accept EU rules and regulations, pay in to the budget, accept ECJ jurisdiction and we won't be able to sign or even negotiate trade deals since no other country will have any idea where we are headed. 

It is not realistic to keep kicking the can down the road and we've all had enough fudge.

I honestly now think a second referendum is the ONLY route she can take. Lay the facts as far as we understand them before the people and ask again - are you quite sure you want to leave the EU?  If the answer comes back YES, we must leave with all the consequent damage and get on with it. 

However, I don't believe a majority would agree.