The Lord's EU, Energy and Environment Committee has released a report (HERE) which concludes food prices will rise if we exit the the EU without a free trade deal. This is completely contrary to what Brexiteer professor Patrick Minford has claimed but it's not surprising is it? After all we import a lot of food from Europe and putting tariffs on, and sometimes quite big tariffs, will add to the price. But of all the things in the Guardian coverage there was one statement that stood out.
The committee chairman, Lord Teverson, said: “Throughout our inquiry there was a striking contrast between government confidence and industry concerns. The government has some important choices to make.”
This doesn't only apply to the food industry, which the Committee looked at, but to just about every other sphere of Brexit. The government gives the appearance of being incredibly confident about everything while experts are virtually unanimous in expressing serious doubts on the Irish border, on leaving the customs union or single market, on security, aviation, industry and everything else.
Anybody worried that the government doesn't have a clue what it's doing will be even more concerned by this report from Bloomberg (HERE). Only in February of this year did they ask business groups to map out their supply chains to see what the impact would be of leaving the customs union. This is shocking. It is rather like asking for a test to be done to see if throwing yourself off a cliff is likely to hurt - just before leaping off the edge.
Being in or out of the CU and the single market is a binary choice. The government is involved in ever more convoluted ways to avoid making a decision that they (or some of them at least) know will adversely impact the economy.
Sooner or later, they are going to have to reach an agreement. Leave the EU customs union and business will start to decamp with thousands of job losses. Remain in it and Brexiteers will howl with rage and the Conservatives will be torn apart.
Ten months to go. Oh my God.
