Last week the PM wrote an article for the Sunday Times that you can read (HERE). It is heavy on wishful thinking and repetition of the old campaign mantra of taking back control of our money, our borders and our laws. She told us she had proposed different options for new customs arrangements with the EU. This week we learn she has ditched both options in favour of a new one - or is it two? A week is a long time in politics.
Politico are reporting (HERE) the "new" customs union lookalike is to be called a "time limited goods arrangement" - (TLGA). This is where we continue to apply the common external tariff after December 2020. I don't think for one second this is going to be acceptable to Barnier unless we also maintain regulatory alignment by applying the entire acquis. Effectively this will be an extension of the transition period that Theresa May used to call the implementation period. Strictly speaking we now appear to be transitioning to an implementation period or perhaps we're implementing a transition period, I confess I'm not really sure.
Politico are reporting (HERE) the "new" customs union lookalike is to be called a "time limited goods arrangement" - (TLGA). This is where we continue to apply the common external tariff after December 2020. I don't think for one second this is going to be acceptable to Barnier unless we also maintain regulatory alignment by applying the entire acquis. Effectively this will be an extension of the transition period that Theresa May used to call the implementation period. Strictly speaking we now appear to be transitioning to an implementation period or perhaps we're implementing a transition period, I confess I'm not really sure.
She is going through unbelievable contortions to try and convince people we will be leaving the customs union while remaining in something so close to a customs union that nobody will notice any difference.
She also wants to have the right to sign trade deals whilst in the TLGA - something the EU will never allow.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has for once missed his thumb and hit the nail on the head (HERE) with his comment that, "We have gone from a clear end point, to an extension, to a proposed further extension with no end point. The horizon seems to be unreachable. The bottom of the rainbow seems to be unattainable. People voted to leave, they did not vote for a perpetual purgatory."
How easy it was all going to be, eh? Unfortunately, Jacob doesn't ask himself why the PM is so keen to get a customs agreement and I assume she either hasn't told him or he simply doesn't get it. He fails to understand that even with a free trade agreement there will be a lot more friction than we have at present and jobs and perhaps entire industries will be put at risk. Of course, to a multi-millionaire Brexiteer this may be of little interest anyway.
His characterisation of Brexit as the bottom of a rainbow by the way is very apt. Did nobody ever tell Rees-Mogg that the ends of rainbows are never attainable?
The Guardian report on the EU summit in Bulgaria where Theresa May met the Irish leader (HERE) and say, "Varadkar later told reporters that, during 45 minutes of talks, May had sketched out her hopes for what he described as a “deep customs arrangement”, a phrase which will likely inflame Brexiters in the UK, who fear that their hopes of independent trade policy post-Brexit could be scotched.
Varadkar said: “The prime minister gave me an insight into some new thinking that the UK government has in relation to customs, and obviously we’ll see how that develops, we haven’t seen any detail of that yet. But certainly I think any move on customs which brings the UK closer to the EU is to be welcomed, but I very much emphasised that resolving the issue of a hard border requires more than customs".
With just a few weeks to go, the PM is reduced to "sketching out" some "hopes" as if discussing the decoration in a spare bedroom with an interior designer rather than the most important decision to affect this country since 1939! Hopes are always the last thing to die, aren't they?
Note also the "time limited goods arrangement" had earlier been a "deep customs partnership". It's not clear if this is a new impractical idea or the old unworkable one with a different name. It doesn't really matter of course, except that the EU need to be sure what to call the proposal when it's rejected - as it certainly will be - because it doesn't actually resolve any border problem. It's déjà vu all over again.
Note also the "time limited goods arrangement" had earlier been a "deep customs partnership". It's not clear if this is a new impractical idea or the old unworkable one with a different name. It doesn't really matter of course, except that the EU need to be sure what to call the proposal when it's rejected - as it certainly will be - because it doesn't actually resolve any border problem. It's déjà vu all over again.
On the topic of the Irish border, it was reported in the Monday meeting of Conservative MPs and Mrs May, the question of Ireland voting to unite the north and south was raised. Jacob Rees-Mogg said if there was a border poll the unionists would win but apparently Mrs May told him "not to be so sure". I understand polling in the province by Sinn Fein shows a majority for uniting Ireland.
Last night, Channel 4 ran a lengthy item where a number of people claim high level talks are already taking place about how to organise for the border poll, that many believe will take place before 2022 and what the aims of a united Ireland should be. Many believe the nationalists will win. The risks to the union are growing.
