Friday 4 May 2018

POLL 64 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

The most recent poll in the YouGov, WhatUKthinks series has just been published yesterday afternoon (HERE). This is in answer to the question: In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU? It's the 64th and shows an increased lead for WRONG of 5%. But this is perhaps a milestone for two reasons. Firstly, at 47% this is the highest ever total for WRONG and secondly, in the total number of polls those showing majorities for RIGHT and WRONG are now equal.

Of course, the important difference is that RIGHT led in the first 27 but WRONG has clawed back the massive lead that RIGHT had and has drawn level in recent months. I expect the momentum to continue and even accelerate as time goes on.

The increase comes from a reduction in the number of don't knows. All very slow but not unexpected. 

In the past twelve months there have been 35 polls, 5 had RIGHT in the lead, 26 had WRONG in front and 4 were even,

So, in total the position now is as follows:

Total No of polls since August 2016: 64

Polls with RIGHT IN THE LEAD: 28 - (22 in the first 27 polls)
Polls with WRONG IN THE LEAD: 28 - (25 in the last 31 polls)
Even: 8

Last time RIGHT was in the lead: 17th January 2018