In a final twist to the customs union saga, HMRC are now saying (HERE) the customs partnership is unworkable and unviable. So, the scheme that started out last August being dismissed as magical thinking by the EU was kept alive all winter and revived as the PM's favoured solution but then described as "cretinous" by Jacob Rees-Mogg and "crazy" by BoJo (this is surely the kettle calling the pot black). Rejected by the cabinet sub committee by a 6-5 majority, it received CPR from Gregg Clark, the Business Secretary, who then paraded it on national TV last weekend like a guilty looking hostage of the North Koreans.
Last week the PM told us further work was required from dedicated professionals, the EU asked for more details and Leo Varadkar told us it might be made "workable" - presumably a reference to ten years hard labour.
Yesterday Gove said (HERE) the idea had "flaws" - job-retaining code for "cretinous" and added, “Because it’s novel, because no model like this exists there have to be significant questions about the deliverability of it on time.” Strange, this is exactly what people told Gove about Brexit before the referendum but he dismissed them as experts, what do they know?
Anyway now the HMRC has seemingly driven a stake through its heart. So, it appears we are probably going to have to drop an unworkable solution (the customs partnership) in favour of one that doesn't exist at all (Max-Fac).
In praise of Max-Fac, John "Lamebrain" Longworth at Leave means Leave, the successor organisation to Vote Leave, has published a paper (HERE) along with David Campbell-Bannerman (writer of UKIP's 2010 manifesto described as "drivel" by Nigel Farage) call Max Fac Works, pushing for the high tech solution. I wouldn't worry too much about reading all 22 pages since it's not likely to have any influence on the EU, who have already rejected it. The introduction (page 6) sets out the problem:
"It is not possible to know precisely what customs arrangements are required until after a free trade arrangement has been agreed. It is not possible to know what Irish border “problem” you have until you know what the final deal is.
"For example, if there is a “No Deal” outcome – that is reverting to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – then import/export will obviously involve greater documentation, tariff compliance etc. than that associated with an FTA which allows mutual access on similar terms to the pre-Brexit situation".
They actually believe a free trade deal will allow "mutual access on similar terms to the pre-Brext situation". This is so wrong as to be literally incredible. If Canada or South Korea had the same or similar access that we have to the single market they wouldn't have to fill in rules of origin documents or make declarations through the EU's SAD system for each and every shipment into Europe. They would also be part of the body that sets the rules of the market and so on. An FTA is not even close to being the same as EU or EEA membership.
And Max-Fac is so complex Longworth actually talks of using Blockchain to track goods! This is almost in the realms of science fiction. Maximum facilitation is good - but it assumes everybody using the border is honest and follows the rules. If that was the case every border in the world would be invisible. None are.
On the same day as the report was released, on This is Money's website (HERE), we have a report about the 800,000 jobs at risk in the British car manufacturing industry with comments from leading figures from Ford and the Japanese and Germans car makers:-
A senior executive at one major foreign car maker condemned May’s customs partnership as a ‘non-starter’, a ‘blue sky’ idea and ‘unworkable’. The executive said he is ‘frustrated’ because when he talks to Brussels, officials are ‘confused’ over why Britain is debating the merits of the customs partnership versus max-fac when neither is acceptable to the EU.
Ford, which employs 13,000 people in the UK, also indicated a preference for staying in the customs union. A spokesman said: ‘Remaining in the EU customs union would preserve tariff-free trade and minimise customs friction – both of these are essential.’ The bosses of luxury car makers Aston Martin and McLaren Automotive also showed their support for keeping frictionless trading arrangements with the EU.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the UK’s ‘free and frictionless trade’ with the EU had been ‘the foundation of the UK automotive industry’s recent success’.
He added: ‘Quite simply, any model that fails to replicate the benefits of the trading relationship we currently enjoy with our largest market will be bad for UK automotive, resulting in major disruption to vehicle manufacturers and their supply chains.’
Despite all of this John Longworth says the PM must "show leadership" (HERE) and ditch "any form of customs union". He is plainly off his rocker and needs psychiatric help.
With weeks to go we cannot even reach a point where we have a practical, workable foundation to begin trading with our largest overseas market containing our largest customers as well as our main suppliers. Brexit makes an omnishambles look like a well drilled operation conducted with military precision.
At this point it's perhaps worth pointing out that the cabinet Brexit sub-committee is made up of apparently sentient adults. Thank God the government is pumping more money into mental health services. Not a moment too soon if you ask me.
However, there are some people who still think the partnership idea isn't dead at all, but like Mark Twain, its death has been greatly exaggerated, mainly by The Telegraph - which has close ties with Boris Johnson as we know.
