Friday, 13 July 2018

POLL 76 IN WHATUKTHINKS SERIES

Hot on the heels of poll 75 comes the 76th poll in the WhatUKthinks series,  published yesterday (HERE) and showing WRONG ahead by 5%. The last three polls have all shown a 4-5% lead, so very consistent. This is in answer to the question: Was the UK right or wrong to vote to leave the EU. It is the 24th poll this year and the 22nd with WRONG in front. 

So the figures are now:

Total No of polls since August 2016: 76

Polls with RIGHT IN THE LEAD: 28 - (22 in the first 27 polls)
Polls with WRONG IN THE LEAD: 39 - (32 in the last 34 polls)

Even: 9

Last time RIGHT was in the lead: 17th January 2018

Looked at annually:

2016 - (from August) 12 polls in total WRONG =1, RIGHT 11
2017 - 39 in total WRONG = 15, RIGHT = 17
2018 - (to date) 26 in total WRONG = 24, RIGHT = 1

At 5% the lead is very comfortable. The fieldwork ended on 11th July so the impact of the White Paper has not yet been felt and it may upset a lot of leavers so look out for a backlash.