Dominic Raab is off to meet Michel Barnier in Brussels for the first time today (HERE). Perfectly on cue, the EU are also about to release a notice to EU member states to increase preparations for the UK leaving next year without a deal in place. I imagine we will get a copy of the note soon. Katya Adler, the BBC European correspondent has seen a copy and says it gives warnings to EU governments as well as specific industry sectors like aviation and pharmaceuticals.
Hilary Benn, Chairman of the Exiting the EU Select Committee, was on The Today programme this morning saying if no deal begins to look more likely, parliament will take control because he does not think there is a majority in The House for it. However, nobody seems to know exactly how this would work.
That there might be a minority in The House for a no deal Brexit should shock us but somehow it doesn't. Either they don't understand the problem or they do and think the chaos that will ensue, is somehow worth it provided we actually leave the EU. Whichever it is, they are culpable. Steve Baker, the former DEXEU minister until he resigned, is certainly in the latter group. He claims 40 or more other Conservatives are willing to vote down any deal based on the white paper released last week (HERE).
That there might be a minority in The House for a no deal Brexit should shock us but somehow it doesn't. Either they don't understand the problem or they do and think the chaos that will ensue, is somehow worth it provided we actually leave the EU. Whichever it is, they are culpable. Steve Baker, the former DEXEU minister until he resigned, is certainly in the latter group. He claims 40 or more other Conservatives are willing to vote down any deal based on the white paper released last week (HERE).
We are certainly heading for a crisis. It is being interpreted as the Ultras pushing the government into leaving without a deal. Desperate men are capable of almost anything but if they calculate that rejecting a soft Brexit means parliament as a whole will accept a no deal exit, they are surely mistaken.
And all the talk of no deal being better than a bad deal was always nonsense. For many MPs it was mostly a negotiating ploy all designed to put pressure on the EU. Before the vote Johnson told friends (HERE) that a no vote was desirable because it would prompt Brussels to offer a much better deal, which the public could then support in a second referendum. Mind you, BoJo has gone from ambivalence or even indifference to EU membership into leading the provisional wing of the Brexiteers so it's hard to take him seriously.
The EU it is reported, are concerned the white paper is already undergoing changes forced on Mrs May by the Ultras in parliament. I can see on their part they have waited patiently for nearly sixteen months for the UK to reveal its negotiating position only to find it's about as solid as if it had been written in smoke. Raab will no doubt have a different approach to Davis, but how long will Raab last? He's a Brexiteer. Will he accept more compromises? Faced with having to give more concessions he will be acutely aware of being in line as scapegoat. If he goes will an even more extreme Brexiteer replace him?
Yesterday, Theresa May said the UK government was about to start releasing its own 70 or so notices to UK businesses and interested parties with advice on preparing for a no deal Brexit (HERE). The Sun, with remarkable insouciance, says, "Until now, the Treasury Business Department have insisted on keeping a lid on no deal work so as not to scare companies into an exodus". I assume this may well mark the beginning of the exodus.
Hopefully this will start to bring home to people what the practical impact of a no deal Brexit actually is. If so, they could have the unintended effect of showing what a weak position we are in. Once this is more widely understood and accepted, support for Brexit, already waning, could fall further and faster. We were told there would be no pain from Brexit at all, now it looks like the Siamese twins are to be separated without anaesthetic and it may perhaps not seem quite so attractive to may of the squeamish leavers.
Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, (HERE) is quoted on the Open Skies agreement, “If they want their planes to fly over our skies, they would need to take that into account. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can’t take back your waters and then expect to take back other people’s sky.”
If we aren't part of the agreement that allows UK aircraft to fly around Europe or to the USA there will be huge disruption. But this is just one small element, problems and workarounds will be needed in virtually every sector with shortages and delays and plenty of other unforeseen impacts. Brexit is going to get a very bad reputation.
Brexiteers are going to blame all of this on EU intransigence but polling shows most of the public do not see it that way. They tend to blame the UK government. According to a YouGov poll reported HERE, 50% support remaining in the EU compared to 33% who want a hard Brexit and just 17% who support leaving with a negotiated deal. I don't see this poll yet on the YouGov website but it looks interesting.
Perhaps the hope we will stay in the EU is not quite dead yet?
